Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Start vs Haugesund — Eliteserien 2026

Start
Start
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Haugesund
Haugesund
F. Gytkjær 49'
4/29/2018EliteserienEliteserien · Round 7Sør Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Start51%
×Draw23%
Haugesund26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Start
1.84
Haugesund
1.25

Start creates 47% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 30 away

creates per match

Start
1.33
Haugesund
1.07

allows per match

Start
1.42
Haugesund
2.36

finishing

Start-0.33scores less
Haugesund-0.10scores less

Total goals

Over: 60Under: 4060%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 60No: 4060%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Start ↓

Haugesund →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Start or draw
74%
Start or Haugesund
77%
Draw or Haugesund
49%

Winning margin

Start wins by 2+
29%
Haugesund wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Start 1+ goals
84%
Start 2+ goals
55%
Start 3+ goals
28%
Haugesund 1+ goals
71%
Haugesund 2+ goals
36%
Haugesund 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Start (draw refunded)
66%
Haugesund (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Start at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.42 · 6 matches

Haugesund away — creates 1.07, concedes 2.36 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Start attack 1.33 + Haugesund defence 2.36 → ÷2 → 1.84

Haugesund attack 1.07 + Start defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Start scores more
51%
level
23%
Haugesund scores more
26%

Start at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Start will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1
P. BråtveitHaugesundHaugesund · G
8.9

Match Events

39'
Afeez Aremu Olalekan
46'
A. Kovačević← Bruno Leite
49'
F. Gytkjær↳ T. Kallevåg
58'
Frederik Gytkjaer
66'
L. Salvesen← A. Hadzic
76'
M. Bringaker← A. Sigurdarson
79'
I. Koné← F. Gytkjær
89'
Alexander Stolaas

Possession

Start: 62Haugesund: 3862%Start

Shots

Start: 21Haugesund: 821Start

Pass accuracy

Start: 86Haugesund: 7155%Start

Statistics

StartHaugesund
Overview
62%Possession38%
21Total Shots8
6Corners5
5Fouls10
Shots
21Total Shots8
9On Target4
8Off Target3
4Blocked1
9Inside Box3
12Outside Box5
Passing
62%Possession38%
566Total Passes338
487Accurate Passes241
86%Pass Accuracy71%
Goalkeeping
3Saves9
Discipline
5Fouls10
1Yellow Cards2
0Red Cards0
0Offsides1

Match Recap: Start vs Haugesund

Haugesund beat Start 1-0 in Eliteserien on April 29, 2018.

Goals: F. Gytkjær (49').

Start controlled possession (62%) and registered 21 shots to 8.

The match was played at Sør Arena in Kristiansand.