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Start vs Ham-Kam — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Start
Start
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Ham-Kam
Ham-Kam
F. O. Ness 44'
T. Strannegard 33'
Unknown 70' (OG)
2/20/2023Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 5

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Start49%
×Draw24%
Ham-Kam27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Start
1.75
Ham-Kam
1.23

Start creates 42% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 14 away

creates per match

Start
1.58
Ham-Kam
1.14

allows per match

Start
1.33
Ham-Kam
1.93

finishing

Start+0.00on par
Ham-Kam+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Start ↓

Ham-Kam →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Start or draw
73%
Start or Ham-Kam
76%
Draw or Ham-Kam
51%

Winning margin

Start wins by 2+
27%
Ham-Kam wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Start 1+ goals
83%
Start 2+ goals
52%
Start 3+ goals
25%
Ham-Kam 1+ goals
71%
Ham-Kam 2+ goals
35%
Ham-Kam 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Start (draw refunded)
65%
Ham-Kam (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Start at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.33 · 12 matches

Ham-Kam away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.93 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Start attack 1.58 + Ham-Kam defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.75

Ham-Kam attack 1.14 + Start defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Start scores more
49%
level
24%
Ham-Kam scores more
27%

Start at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Start will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

29'
M. Sandberg
33'
T. Strannegard
44'
F. O. Ness
70'
Own goal

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Start vs Ham-Kam

Start beat Ham-Kam 2-1 in Friendlies Clubs on February 20, 2023.

Goals: T. Strannegard (33'), F. O. Ness (44'), ? (70' o.g.).