Ham-Kam 2–1 Start: Result & Stats | Eliteserien

Ham-Kam

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Start

M. Johnsgard 87'

M. Niang 78'

E. Schulze 47'

4/26/2026

Eliteserien · Round 6Briskeby Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Ham-Kam45%

×Draw25%

Start31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ham-KamExpected goals in this matchStart

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.57

1.26

Ham-Kam

1.57

Start

1.26

Ham-Kam creates 25% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 8 away

1.32

creates per match

0.90

1.62

allows per match

1.82

creates per match

Ham-Kam

1.32

Start

0.90

allows per match

Ham-Kam

1.62

Start

1.82

+0.49scores more than expected

finishing

+0.10scores more than expected

finishing

Ham-Kam+0.49scores more

Start+0.10scores more

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ham-Kam ↓

Start →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

54%46%3.5

31%69%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Ham-Kam or draw

69%

Ham-Kam or Start

75%

Draw or Start

55%

Winning margin

Ham-Kam wins by 2+

22%

Start wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Ham-Kam 1+ goals

79%

Ham-Kam 2+ goals

46%

Ham-Kam 3+ goals

21%

Start 1+ goals

72%

Start 2+ goals

36%

Start 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Ham-Kam (draw refunded)

59%

Start (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ham-Kam at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.62 · 26 matches

Start away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.82 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ham-Kam attack 1.32 + Start defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.57

Start attack 0.90 + Ham-Kam defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Ham-Kam scores more

45%

level

25%

Start scores more

31%

Ham-Kam at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Ham-Kam will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

2

M. Gjone

Ham-Kam · D

7.7

Match Events

47'

E. Schulze↳ T. Strannegard

60'

A. Trondsen← P. Metcalfe

60'

I. Hoffmann← V. Jonsson

71'

M. Johnsgard← H. Udahl

78'

M. Niang↳ A. Potur

79'

J. Ampofo← J. Cornelius

87'

M. Johnsgard↳ M. Gjone

88'

F. Palerud← O. Toure

89'

A. F. Gurendal← H. Lorentzen

90+7'

Ilir Kukleci

90+7'

Eirik Schulze

90'

I. Kukleci← F. Sjolstad

90'

W. Osnes-Ringen← L. Mettler

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Ham-KamStart

Overview

54%Possession46%

12Total Shots12

1.16Expected Goals (xG)0.77

5Corners1

11Fouls14

Shots

12Total Shots12

4On Target2

3Off Target5

5Blocked5

8Inside Box6

4Outside Box6

Passing

54%Possession46%

485Total Passes414

393Accurate Passes320

81%Pass Accuracy77%

Goalkeeping

1Saves1

-1.05Goals Prevented-1.05

Discipline

11Fouls14

1Yellow Cards1

1Offsides0

Match Recap: Ham-Kam vs Start

Ham-Kam beat Start 2-1 in Eliteserien on April 26, 2026.

Goals: E. Schulze (47'), M. Niang (78'), M. Johnsgard (87').

Ham-Kam controlled possession (54%) and registered 12 shots to 12.

The match was played at Briskeby Arena in Hamar.

Ham-Kam vs Start — Eliteserien 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Ham-Kam vs Start