Start 1–4 Ham-Kam: Result & Stats | 1. Division

Start

FT

1 – 4

HT: 0 – 1

Ham-Kam

E. Schulze 64'

A. Berisha 90+4'

Rubén Alegre 54'

M. Bjørlo 52'

K. Eriksen 35'

7/5/2021

1. Division · Round 10Sparebanken Sør Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Start40%

×Draw24%

Ham-Kam37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

StartExpected goals in this matchHam-Kam

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.61

1.54

Start

1.61

Ham-Kam

1.54

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 80 home / 46 away

2.00

creates per match

1.65

1.44

allows per match

1.22

creates per match

Start

2.00

Ham-Kam

1.65

allows per match

Start

1.44

Ham-Kam

1.22

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Start+0.00on par

Ham-Kam+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Start ↓

Ham-Kam →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

38%62%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Start or draw

63%

Start or Ham-Kam

76%

Draw or Ham-Kam

60%

Winning margin

Start wins by 2+

20%

Ham-Kam wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Start 1+ goals

80%

Start 2+ goals

48%

Start 3+ goals

22%

Ham-Kam 1+ goals

79%

Ham-Kam 2+ goals

45%

Ham-Kam 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Start (draw refunded)

52%

Ham-Kam (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Start at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.44 · 80 matches

Ham-Kam away — creates 1.65, concedes 1.22 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Start attack 2.00 + Ham-Kam defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.61

Ham-Kam attack 1.65 + Start defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Start scores more

40%

level

24%

Ham-Kam scores more

37%

Start at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Start will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

35'

K. Eriksen

45'

K. Onsrud

46'

J. Jørgensen← V. Bergan

46'

M. Moldskred← P. Reinhardsen

52'

54'

58'

62'

64'

65'

E. Pedersen← M. Ugland

71'

J. Faye Lund

76'

D. Arzani← S. Strømnes

78'

A. Akinyemi← H. Robstad

82'

R. Lindkvist← E. Sildnes

88'

A. Akinyemi

90+3'

A. Berisha← M. Bjørlo

90+4'

A. Berisha

Start

Ham-Kam

31

Lund

5

▼

Strømnes

13

⚽

Alegre

10

▼

Sildnes

33

Melgalvis

7

Onsrud

6

⚽

Eriksen

11

⚽

▼

8

14

9

1

3

▼

Bergan

15

▼

Robstad

22

Tønnessen

5

▼

Reinhards

4

Makrini

11

⚽

Schulze

10

Marković

16

▼

Ugland

9

Ramsland

23

▼

Buch

Manager: S. Tjelmeland

46'▲J. Jørgensen←▼V. Bergan

46'▲M. Moldskred←▼P. Reinhardsen

62'▲S. Sjøkvist←▼S. Buch

65'▲E. Pedersen←▼M. Ugland

78'▲A. Akinyemi←▼H. Robstad

Start substitutes

6Jørgensen7Moldskred21Sjøkvist19Pedersen17Akinyemi12Wichne43Daland58Hille64Eftevaag

Manager: K. Rekdal

76'▲D. Arzani←▼S. Strømnes

82'▲R. Lindkvist←▼E. Sildnes

90+3'▲A. Berisha←▼M. Bjørlo

Ham-Kam substitutes

25Arzani22Lindkvist53Berisha12Jarosiński17Abubakar18Rekdal

Start 1 – 4 Ham-Kam

Ham-Kam beat Start 4-1 in 1. Division on July 5, 2021.

Goals: K. Eriksen (35'), M. Bjørlo (52'), Rubén Alegre (54'), E. Schulze (64'), A. Berisha (90+4').

The match was played at Sparebanken Sør Arena in Kristiansand.

Start vs Ham-Kam — 1. Division 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Start 1 – 4 Ham-Kam