Ham-Kam 3–2 Start: Result & Stats | 1. Division

Ham-Kam

FT

3 – 2

HT: 2 – 1

Start

V. Skjærvik 68'

K. Eriksen 43'

J. Enkerud 22'

E. Schulze 48'

M. Ramsland 19'

8/29/2021

1. Division · Round 16Briskeby Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Ham-Kam44%

×Draw23%

Start33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ham-KamExpected goals in this matchStart

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

1.46

Ham-Kam

1.71

Start

1.46

Ham-Kam creates 17% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 77 away

1.93

creates per match

1.53

1.40

allows per match

1.49

creates per match

Ham-Kam

1.93

Start

1.53

allows per match

Ham-Kam

1.40

Start

1.49

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ham-Kam+0.00on par

Start+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ham-Kam ↓

Start →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Ham-Kam or draw

67%

Ham-Kam or Start

77%

Draw or Start

56%

Winning margin

Ham-Kam wins by 2+

23%

Start wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Ham-Kam 1+ goals

82%

Ham-Kam 2+ goals

51%

Ham-Kam 3+ goals

24%

Start 1+ goals

77%

Start 2+ goals

43%

Start 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Ham-Kam (draw refunded)

57%

Start (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ham-Kam at home — creates 1.93, concedes 1.40 · 42 matches

Start away — creates 1.53, concedes 1.49 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ham-Kam attack 1.93 + Start defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.71

Start attack 1.53 + Ham-Kam defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Ham-Kam scores more

44%

level

23%

Start scores more

33%

Ham-Kam at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Ham-Kam will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

19'

22'

43'

48'

48'

53'

H. Kuruçay← E. Sildnes

58'

C. Cresswell← S. Sjøkvist

63'

V. Bergan← E. Marković

63'

M. Moldskred← E. Schulze

68'

V. Skjærvik

73'

C. Cresswell

77'

A. Akinyemi← L. Mares

88'

S. Strømnes← T. Bair

90+2'

H. Robstad

90+3'

S. Rogers

90'

A. Berisha← J. Enkerud

Ham-Kam

Start

12

18

15

22

14

▼

Mares

11

⚽

▼

Schulze

8

Valsvik

10

▼

Marković

28

Tjærandse

21

▼

Sjøkvist

9

⚽

96

22

4

10

▼

Sildnes

33

Melgalvis

7

Onsrud

6

⚽

Eriksen

8

⚽

Skjærvik

14

Rødølen

9

⚽

▼

Enkerud

23

▼

Bair

Manager: K. Rekdal

53'▲H. Kuruçay←▼E. Sildnes

88'▲S. Strømnes←▼T. Bair

90'▲A. Berisha←▼J. Enkerud

Ham-Kam substitutes

58Kuruçay5Strømnes53Berisha12Jarosiński17Abubakar18Rekdal25Arzani

Manager: S. Tjelmeland

58'▲C. Cresswell←▼S. Sjøkvist

63'▲V. Bergan←▼E. Marković

63'▲M. Moldskred←▼E. Schulze

77'▲A. Akinyemi←▼L. Mares

Start substitutes

20Cresswell3Bergan7Moldskred17Akinyemi4Makrini5Reinhardsen16Ugland26Torkildsen

Match Recap: Ham-Kam vs Start

Ham-Kam beat Start 3-2 in 1. Division on August 29, 2021.

Goals: M. Ramsland (19'), J. Enkerud (22'), K. Eriksen (43'), E. Schulze (48'), V. Skjærvik (68').

The match was played at Briskeby Arena in Hamar.

Ham-Kam vs Start — 1. Division 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Ham-Kam vs Start