Stabaek 2–2 Rosenborg: Result & Stats | Eliteserien

Stabaek

FT

2 – 2

HT: 2 – 1

Rosenborg

M. Bakenga 10'

K. Kostadinov 8'

C. Holse 89'

J. Nelson 29'

6/11/2023

Eliteserien · Round 10Nadderud Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Stabaek40%

×Draw25%

Rosenborg35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

StabaekExpected goals in this matchRosenborg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.40

Stabaek

1.50

Rosenborg

1.40

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 5 home / 32 away

1.16

creates per match

1.36

1.43

allows per match

1.83

creates per match

Stabaek

1.16

Rosenborg

1.36

allows per match

Stabaek

1.43

Rosenborg

1.83

+0.04on par

finishing

-0.02on par

finishing

Stabaek+0.04on par

Rosenborg-0.02on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stabaek ↓

Rosenborg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

79%21%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Stabaek or draw

65%

Stabaek or Rosenborg

75%

Draw or Rosenborg

60%

Winning margin

Stabaek wins by 2+

19%

Rosenborg wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Stabaek 1+ goals

78%

Stabaek 2+ goals

44%

Stabaek 3+ goals

19%

Rosenborg 1+ goals

75%

Rosenborg 2+ goals

41%

Rosenborg 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Stabaek (draw refunded)

53%

Rosenborg (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stabaek at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.43 · 5 matches

Rosenborg away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.83 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stabaek attack 1.16 + Rosenborg defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.50

Rosenborg attack 1.36 + Stabaek defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Stabaek scores more

40%

level

25%

Rosenborg scores more

35%

Stabaek at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Stabaek will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

21

O. Skarsem

Rosenborg · M

7.9

Match Events

8'

K. Kostadinov↳ S. Ottesen

10'

M. Bakenga↳ K. Høgh

29'

J. Nelson↳ O. Aga

39'

Curtis Edwards

45+2'

Edvard Sandvik TagsethGoal cancelled

58'

S. Wangberg← N. Jenssen

59'

Kasper HøghGoal cancelled

64'

S. Nypan← O. Aga

74'

L. Cornic← S. Rogers

76'

Jonatan Lucca

82'

A. Andresen← M. Bakenga

82'

N. Walstad← S. Ottesen

86'

A. Sadiku← J. Nelson

86'

A. Pereira← E. Tagseth

89'

C. Holse↳ E. Reitan

90+4'

Ulrik Jenssen

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

StabaekRosenborg

Overview

26%Possession74%

6Total Shots13

2Corners5

11Fouls7

Shots

6Total Shots13

2On Target5

4Off Target6

0Blocked2

3Inside Box10

3Outside Box3

Passing

26%Possession74%

226Total Passes633

127Accurate Passes521

56%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

3Saves0

Discipline

11Fouls7

2Yellow Cards1

3Offsides2

Match Recap: Stabaek vs Rosenborg

Stabaek and Rosenborg drew 2-2 in Eliteserien on June 11, 2023.

Goals: K. Kostadinov (8'), M. Bakenga (10'), J. Nelson (29'), C. Holse (89').

Rosenborg controlled possession (74%) and registered 13 shots to 6.

The match was played at Nadderud Stadion in Bekkestua.

Stabaek vs Rosenborg — Eliteserien 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Stabaek vs Rosenborg