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Stabaek vs Rosenborg — Eliteserien 2026

Stabaek
Stabaek
CANC
00:00
Rosenborg
Rosenborg
6/20/2021EliteserienEliteserien · Round 11Nadderud Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Stabaek40%
×Draw25%
Rosenborg35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stabaek
1.50
Rosenborg
1.40

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 5 home / 32 away

creates per match

Stabaek
1.16
Rosenborg
1.36

allows per match

Stabaek
1.43
Rosenborg
1.83

finishing

Stabaek+0.04on par
Rosenborg-0.02on par

Total goals

Over: 55Under: 4555%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 59No: 4159%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stabaek ↓

Rosenborg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
79%21%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Stabaek or draw
65%
Stabaek or Rosenborg
75%
Draw or Rosenborg
60%

Winning margin

Stabaek wins by 2+
19%
Rosenborg wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Stabaek 1+ goals
78%
Stabaek 2+ goals
44%
Stabaek 3+ goals
19%
Rosenborg 1+ goals
75%
Rosenborg 2+ goals
41%
Rosenborg 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Stabaek (draw refunded)
53%
Rosenborg (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stabaek at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.43 · 5 matches

Rosenborg away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.83 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stabaek attack 1.16 + Rosenborg defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.50

Rosenborg attack 1.36 + Stabaek defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Stabaek scores more
40%
level
25%
Rosenborg scores more
35%

Stabaek at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Stabaek will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Stabaek face Rosenborg (Eliteserien)

Eliteserien returns with Stabaek hosting Rosenborg. Match starts June 20, 2021. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Stabaek host Rosenborg at Nadderud Stadion.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.