Rosenborg 1–1 Stabaek: Result & Stats | Eliteserien

Rosenborg

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Stabaek

O. Sæter 33'

M. Bakenga 13'

10/22/2023

Eliteserien · Round 25Lerkendal Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Rosenborg49%

×Draw22%

Stabaek29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RosenborgExpected goals in this matchStabaek

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.95

1.45

Rosenborg

1.95

Stabaek

1.45

Rosenborg creates 34% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 7 away

1.75

creates per match

1.63

1.27

allows per match

2.15

creates per match

Rosenborg

1.75

Stabaek

1.63

allows per match

Rosenborg

1.27

Stabaek

2.15

-0.06on par

finishing

-0.63scores less than expected

finishing

Rosenborg-0.06on par

Stabaek-0.63scores less

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rosenborg ↓

Stabaek →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Rosenborg or draw

71%

Rosenborg or Stabaek

78%

Draw or Stabaek

51%

Winning margin

Rosenborg wins by 2+

28%

Stabaek wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Rosenborg 1+ goals

86%

Rosenborg 2+ goals

58%

Rosenborg 3+ goals

31%

Stabaek 1+ goals

77%

Stabaek 2+ goals

42%

Stabaek 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Rosenborg (draw refunded)

63%

Stabaek (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rosenborg at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.27 · 35 matches

Stabaek away — creates 1.63, concedes 2.15 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rosenborg attack 1.75 + Stabaek defence 2.15 → ÷2 → 1.95

Stabaek attack 1.63 + Rosenborg defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Rosenborg scores more

49%

level

22%

Stabaek scores more

29%

Rosenborg at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Rosenborg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

24

S. Tangvik

Rosenborg · G

8.9

Match Events

13'

M. Bakenga↳ N. Walstad

17'

Kevin Kabran

25'

P. Skjelbred← S. Nypan

32'

33'

43'

45'

45+7'

M. Ceïde← U. Yttergård Jenssen

46'

T. Børkeeiet← P. Skjelbred

46'

K. Pedersen← S. Wangberg

59'

Í. Þorvaldsson← O. Sæter

74'

Leo Cornic

78'

F. Krogstad← R. Vinge

84'

L. Kjerrumgaard← M. Bakenga

90+3'

Kevin Kabran

90+3'

Kevin Kabran

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

RosenborgStabaek

Overview

57%Possession43%

14Total Shots20

2.42Expected Goals (xG)2.88

5Corners3

17Fouls9

Shots

14Total Shots20

4On Target10

7Off Target6

3Blocked4

12Inside Box10

2Outside Box10

Passing

57%Possession43%

488Total Passes365

392Accurate Passes280

80%Pass Accuracy77%

Goalkeeping

8Saves3

Discipline

17Fouls9

3Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards1

2Offsides0

Match Recap: Rosenborg vs Stabaek

Rosenborg and Stabaek drew 1-1 in Eliteserien on October 22, 2023.

Goals: M. Bakenga (13'), O. Sæter (33').

Rosenborg controlled possession (57%) and registered 14 shots to 20.

The match was played at Lerkendal Stadion in Trondheim.

Rosenborg vs Stabaek — Eliteserien 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Rosenborg vs Stabaek