Rosenborg 4–2 Stabaek: Result & Stats | Eliteserien

Rosenborg

FT

4 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Stabaek

B. Šerbečić 77'

K. Zachariassen 74'

E. Ceide 61'

R. Wiedesheim-Paul 47'

O. Edvardsen 90+1'

S. Wangberg 14'

5/30/2021

Eliteserien · Round 6Lerkendal Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Rosenborg51%

×Draw22%

Stabaek27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RosenborgExpected goals in this matchStabaek

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.00

1.42

Rosenborg

2.00

Stabaek

1.42

Rosenborg creates 41% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 7 away

1.85

creates per match

1.63

1.22

allows per match

2.15

creates per match

Rosenborg

1.85

Stabaek

1.63

allows per match

Rosenborg

1.22

Stabaek

2.15

-0.12scores less than expected

finishing

-0.63scores less than expected

finishing

Rosenborg-0.12scores less

Stabaek-0.63scores less

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rosenborg ↓

Stabaek →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Rosenborg or draw

73%

Rosenborg or Stabaek

78%

Draw or Stabaek

49%

Winning margin

Rosenborg wins by 2+

29%

Stabaek wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Rosenborg 1+ goals

86%

Rosenborg 2+ goals

59%

Rosenborg 3+ goals

32%

Stabaek 1+ goals

76%

Stabaek 2+ goals

41%

Stabaek 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Rosenborg (draw refunded)

65%

Stabaek (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rosenborg at home — creates 1.85, concedes 1.22 · 37 matches

Stabaek away — creates 1.63, concedes 2.15 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rosenborg attack 1.85 + Stabaek defence 2.15 → ÷2 → 2.00

Stabaek attack 1.63 + Rosenborg defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Rosenborg scores more

51%

level

22%

Stabaek scores more

27%

Rosenborg at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Rosenborg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

18

K. Zachariassen

Rosenborg · F

8.2

Match Events

14'

S. Wangberg↳ S. Ottesen

44'

Simen Wangberg

46'

R. Wiedesheim-Paul← E. Tagseth

46'

47'

61'

68'

69'

O. Edvardsen← H. Geelmuyden

69'

T. Lumanza← M. Solbakken

71'

Per Ciljan Skjelbred

74'

K. Zachariassen↳ D. Islamović

76'

Sammy Skytte

77'

B. Šerbečić↳ K. Zachariassen

78'

J. Augustinsson← P. Skjelbred

78'

A. Nusa← K. Hansen

78'

O. Khoblenko← K. Kinoshita

83'

Mats Solheim

83'

A. Konradsen← A. Andersson

90+1'

O. Sæter← D. Islamović

90+1'

K. Torgersen← H. Shala

90+1'

O. Edvardsen↳ M. Solheim

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

RosenborgStabaek

Overview

59%Possession41%

19Total Shots9

4Corners3

7Fouls15

Shots

19Total Shots9

5On Target5

10Off Target2

4Blocked2

13Inside Box7

6Outside Box2

Passing

59%Possession41%

506Total Passes350

419Accurate Passes276

83%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

3Saves1

Discipline

7Fouls15

1Yellow Cards4

2Offsides1

Eliteserien: Rosenborg 4–2 Stabaek

Rosenborg beat Stabaek 4-2 in Eliteserien on May 30, 2021.

Goals: S. Wangberg (14'), R. Wiedesheim-Paul (47'), E. Ceide (61'), K. Zachariassen (74'), B. Šerbečić (77'), O. Edvardsen (90+1').

Rosenborg controlled possession (59%) and registered 19 shots to 9.

The match was played at Lerkendal Stadion in Trondheim.

Rosenborg vs Stabaek — Eliteserien 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Eliteserien: Rosenborg 4–2 Stabaek