SSV ULM 1846 2–0 Preussen Munster: Result & Stats

SSV ULM 1846

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Preussen Munster

L. Stoll 83'

F. Higl 10'

4/13/2024

League #80 · Round 33Donaustadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

SSV ULM 184649%

×Draw25%

Preussen Munster25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 584,459 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SSV ULM 1846Expected goals in this matchPreussen Munster

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

1.04

SSV ULM 1846

1.56

Preussen Munster

1.04

SSV ULM 1846 creates 50% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 33 away

1.40

creates per match

0.79

1.30

allows per match

1.73

creates per match

SSV ULM 1846

1.40

Preussen Munster

0.79

allows per match

SSV ULM 1846

1.30

Preussen Munster

1.73

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

SSV ULM 1846+0.00on par

Preussen Munster+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SSV ULM 1846 ↓

Preussen Munster →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

SSV ULM 1846 or draw

75%

SSV ULM 1846 or Preussen Munster

75%

Draw or Preussen Munster

51%

Winning margin

SSV ULM 1846 wins by 2+

25%

Preussen Munster wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

SSV ULM 1846 1+ goals

79%

SSV ULM 1846 2+ goals

46%

SSV ULM 1846 3+ goals

21%

Preussen Munster 1+ goals

65%

Preussen Munster 2+ goals

28%

Preussen Munster 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

SSV ULM 1846 (draw refunded)

66%

Preussen Munster (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SSV ULM 1846 at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.30 · 10 matches

Preussen Munster away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.73 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SSV ULM 1846 attack 1.40 + Preussen Munster defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.56

Preussen Munster attack 0.79 + SSV ULM 1846 defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

SSV ULM 1846 scores more

49%

level

25%

Preussen Munster scores more

25%

SSV ULM 1846 at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "SSV ULM 1846 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

22

Léo Scienza

SSV ULM 1846 · F

7.6

Match Events

10'

25'

40'

54'

54'

M. Lorenz← D. Steczyk

66'

L. Ahrend← M. Brandt

67'

L. Yarbrough← J. Reichert

68'

G. Wegkamp← M. Batmaz

68'

Y. Bouchama← S. Oubeyapwa

73'

Luca Bazzoli

74'

Philipp Maier

76'

T. Kastanaras← D. Chessa

76'

N. Jann← F. Higl

78'

Jano ter Horst

83'

D. Kyerewaa← L. Bazzoli

83'

L. Stoll

87'

Philipp Strompf

90'

Nicolas Jann

90'

L. Röser← Léo Scienza

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SSVPreussen

Overview

48%Possession52%

8Total Shots4

1.54Expected Goals (xG)0.49

5Corners9

11Fouls21

Shots

8Total Shots4

6On Target0

0Off Target3

2Blocked1

7Inside Box3

1Outside Box1

Passing

48%Possession52%

269Total Passes332

199Accurate Passes251

74%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

0Saves5

Discipline

11Fouls21

3Yellow Cards4

0Red Cards0

1Offsides2