Preußen Münster 0–0 SSV Ulm 1846: Result & Stats

Preußen Münster

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

SSV Ulm 1846

12/21/2024

2. Bundesliga · Round 17Preußen-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Preußen Münster43%

×Draw27%

SSV Ulm 184630%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Preußen MünsterExpected goals in this matchSSV Ulm 1846

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.34

1.07

Preußen Münster

1.34

SSV Ulm 1846

1.07

Preußen Münster creates 25% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 17 away

1.15

creates per match

0.88

1.26

allows per match

1.53

creates per match

Preußen Münster

1.15

SSV Ulm 1846

0.88

allows per match

Preußen Münster

1.26

SSV Ulm 1846

1.53

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Preußen Münster+0.00on par

SSV Ulm 1846+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Preußen Münster ↓

SSV Ulm 1846 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Preußen Münster or draw

70%

Preußen Münster or SSV Ulm 1846

73%

Draw or SSV Ulm 1846

57%

Winning margin

Preußen Münster wins by 2+

20%

SSV Ulm 1846 wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Preußen Münster 1+ goals

74%

Preußen Münster 2+ goals

39%

Preußen Münster 3+ goals

15%

SSV Ulm 1846 1+ goals

66%

SSV Ulm 1846 2+ goals

29%

SSV Ulm 1846 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Preußen Münster (draw refunded)

59%

SSV Ulm 1846 (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Preußen Münster at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.26 · 34 matches

SSV Ulm 1846 away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.53 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Preußen Münster attack 1.15 + SSV Ulm 1846 defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.34

SSV Ulm 1846 attack 0.88 + Preußen Münster defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Preußen Münster scores more

43%

level

27%

SSV Ulm 1846 scores more

30%

Preußen Münster at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Preußen Münster will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff