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Preussen Munster vs SSV ULM 1846 — League #80 2026

Preussen Munster
Preussen Munster
FT
3 – 2
HT: 2 – 0
SSV ULM 1846
SSV ULM 1846
M. Lorenz 54' (pen)
J. Grodowski 23', 11'
T. Rühle 74'
N. Jann 68' (pen)
11/5/2023League #80League #80 · Round 14Preußen-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Preussen Munster47%
×Draw23%
SSV ULM 184630%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 584,459 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Preussen Munster
1.78
SSV ULM 1846
1.37

Preussen Munster creates 30% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 9 away

creates per match

Preussen Munster
1.67
SSV ULM 1846
1.56

allows per match

Preussen Munster
1.18
SSV ULM 1846
1.89

finishing

Preussen Munster+0.00on par
SSV ULM 1846+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Preussen Munster ↓

SSV ULM 1846 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Preussen Munster or draw
70%
Preussen Munster or SSV ULM 1846
77%
Draw or SSV ULM 1846
53%

Winning margin

Preussen Munster wins by 2+
25%
SSV ULM 1846 wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Preussen Munster 1+ goals
83%
Preussen Munster 2+ goals
53%
Preussen Munster 3+ goals
26%
SSV ULM 1846 1+ goals
75%
SSV ULM 1846 2+ goals
40%
SSV ULM 1846 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Preussen Munster (draw refunded)
61%
SSV ULM 1846 (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Preussen Munster at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.18 · 33 matches

SSV ULM 1846 away — creates 1.56, concedes 1.89 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Preussen Munster attack 1.67 + SSV ULM 1846 defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.78

SSV ULM 1846 attack 1.56 + Preussen Munster defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Preussen Munster scores more
47%
level
23%
SSV ULM 1846 scores more
30%

Preussen Munster at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Preussen Munster will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'
J. Grodowski
23'
J. Grodowski
39'
Yassine Bouchama
46'
D. Ghindovean← Y. Bouchama
54'
M. LorenzPenalty
67'
Nicolas Jann
68'
N. JannPenalty
71'
M. Brandt← L. Ahrend
71'
T. Rühle← A. Ludwig
71'
Dennis Oelsner← S. Risch
74'
T. Rühle↳ Léo Scienza
75'
G. Wegkamp← M. Batmaz
79'
T. Deters← D. Kyerewaa
83'
Darius Ghindovean
86'
J. Kudala← B. Allgeier
86'
F. Higl← N. Jann
89'
Thorben Deters
90+6'
Shaibou Oubeyapwa
90+1'
S. Oubeyapwa← J. Grodowski

Shots

7Preussen

Statistics

PreussenSSV
Overview
7Total Shots5
7Corners3
15Fouls12
Shots
7Total Shots5
4On Target2
2Off Target1
1Blocked2
Goalkeeping
3Saves7
Discipline
15Fouls12
4Yellow Cards1
0Red Cards0

League #80: Preussen Munster 3–2 SSV ULM 1846

Preussen Munster beat SSV ULM 1846 3-2 in League #80 on November 5, 2023.

Goals: J. Grodowski (11', 23'), M. Lorenz (54' pen), N. Jann (68' pen), T. Rühle (74').

The match was played at Preußen-Stadion in Münster.