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SSV Ulm 1846 vs Preußen Münster — 2. Bundesliga 2018

SSV Ulm 1846
SSV Ulm 1846
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Preußen Münster
Preußen Münster
5/18/20252. Bundesliga2. Bundesliga · Round 34Donaustadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

SSV Ulm 184644%
×Draw25%
Preußen Münster31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SSV Ulm 1846
1.52
Preußen Münster
1.22

SSV Ulm 1846 creates 25% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 34 away

creates per match

SSV Ulm 1846
1.24
Preußen Münster
1.15

allows per match

SSV Ulm 1846
1.29
Preußen Münster
1.79

finishing

SSV Ulm 1846+0.00on par
Preußen Münster+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SSV Ulm 1846 ↓

Preußen Münster →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

SSV Ulm 1846 or draw
69%
SSV Ulm 1846 or Preußen Münster
75%
Draw or Preußen Münster
56%

Winning margin

SSV Ulm 1846 wins by 2+
22%
Preußen Münster wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

SSV Ulm 1846 1+ goals
78%
SSV Ulm 1846 2+ goals
45%
SSV Ulm 1846 3+ goals
20%
Preußen Münster 1+ goals
70%
Preußen Münster 2+ goals
34%
Preußen Münster 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

SSV Ulm 1846 (draw refunded)
59%
Preußen Münster (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SSV Ulm 1846 at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.29 · 17 matches

Preußen Münster away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.79 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SSV Ulm 1846 attack 1.24 + Preußen Münster defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.52

Preußen Münster attack 1.15 + SSV Ulm 1846 defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

SSV Ulm 1846 scores more
44%
level
25%
Preußen Münster scores more
31%

SSV Ulm 1846 at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "SSV Ulm 1846 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: SSV Ulm 1846 vs Preußen Münster

SSV Ulm 1846 and Preußen Münster drew 2-2 in 2. Bundesliga on May 18, 2025.

The match was played at Donaustadion in Ulm.