SSV Jahn Regensburg 1–0 SpVgg Greuther Fürth

SSV Jahn Regensburg

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

SpVgg Greuther Fürth

R. Bulić 59'

10/29/2024

DFB Pokal · 2nd RoundJahnstadion Regensburg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

SSV Jahn Regensburg27%

×Draw30%

SpVgg Greuther Fürth43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SSV Jahn RegensburgExpected goals in this matchSpVgg Greuther Fürth

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.85

1.16

SSV Jahn Regensburg

0.85

SpVgg Greuther Fürth

1.16

SpVgg Greuther Fürth creates 36% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 8 away

0.57

creates per match

0.75

1.57

allows per match

1.13

creates per match

SSV Jahn Regensburg

0.57

SpVgg Greuther Fürth

0.75

allows per match

SSV Jahn Regensburg

1.57

SpVgg Greuther Fürth

1.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

SSV Jahn Regensburg+0.00on par

SpVgg Greuther Fürth+0.00on par

Total goals

Under67
Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SSV Jahn Regensburg ↓

SpVgg Greuther Fürth →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–116%

0–29%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–16%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

60%40%2.5

33%67%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

SSV Jahn Regensburg or draw

57%

SSV Jahn Regensburg or SpVgg Greuther Fürth

70%

Draw or SpVgg Greuther Fürth

73%

Winning margin

SSV Jahn Regensburg wins by 2+

9%

SpVgg Greuther Fürth wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

SSV Jahn Regensburg 1+ goals

57%

SSV Jahn Regensburg 2+ goals

21%

SSV Jahn Regensburg 3+ goals

5%

SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1+ goals

69%

SpVgg Greuther Fürth 2+ goals

32%

SpVgg Greuther Fürth 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

SSV Jahn Regensburg (draw refunded)

38%

SpVgg Greuther Fürth (draw refunded)

62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SSV Jahn Regensburg at home — creates 0.57, concedes 1.57 · 7 matches

SpVgg Greuther Fürth away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.13 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SSV Jahn Regensburg attack 0.57 + SpVgg Greuther Fürth defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 0.85

SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.75 + SSV Jahn Regensburg defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

SSV Jahn Regensburg scores more

27%

level

30%

SpVgg Greuther Fürth scores more

43%

SpVgg Greuther Fürth at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "SpVgg Greuther Fürth will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

F. Gebhardt

SSV Jahn Regensburg · G

8.2

Match Events

10'

13'

25'

59'

63'

65'

M. Mustapha← N. Gießelmann

69'

Kai Pröger

69'

R. Ziegele← S. Ernst

70'

Roberto Massimo

73'

Nemanja Motika← R. Massimo

75'

N. Ganaus← E. Hottmann

80'

Marco Meyerhofer

80'

M. Wagner← M. Meyerhöfer

90+4'

Felix Gebhardt

90+3'

A. Bittroff← C. Kühlwetter

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SSVSpVgg

Overview

32%Possession68%

9Total Shots19

3Corners3

14Fouls16

Shots

9Total Shots19

4On Target5

4Off Target5

1Blocked9

5Inside Box9

4Outside Box10

Passing

32%Possession68%

239Total Passes516

155Accurate Passes432

65%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

5Saves3

Discipline

14Fouls16

4Yellow Cards3

1Red Cards0

0Offsides3

DFB Pokal: SSV Jahn Regensburg 1–0 SpVgg Greuther Fürth

SSV Jahn Regensburg beat SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1-0 in DFB Pokal on October 29, 2024.

Goals: R. Bulić (59').

SpVgg Greuther Fürth controlled possession (68%) and registered 19 shots to 9.

The match was played at Jahnstadion Regensburg in Regensburg.

SSV Jahn Regensburg vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth — DFB Pokal 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

DFB Pokal: SSV Jahn Regensburg 1–0 SpVgg Greuther Fürth