SpVgg Greuther Fürth 2–1 SSV Jahn Regensburg

SpVgg Greuther Fürth

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

SSV Jahn Regensburg

D. Srbeny 37'

J. Consbruch 31'

S. Adamyan 6'

2/7/2025

2. Bundesliga · Round 21Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 102+ matches

SpVgg Greuther Fürth50%

×Draw23%

SSV Jahn Regensburg27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SpVgg Greuther FürthExpected goals in this matchSSV Jahn Regensburg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.77

1.23

SpVgg Greuther Fürth

1.77

SSV Jahn Regensburg

1.23

SpVgg Greuther Fürth creates 44% more chances

Season form · 121 home / 102 away

1.60

creates per match

1.16

1.31

allows per match

1.95

creates per match

SpVgg Greuther Fürth

1.60

SSV Jahn Regensburg

1.16

allows per match

SpVgg Greuther Fürth

1.31

SSV Jahn Regensburg

1.95

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

SpVgg Greuther Fürth+0.00on par

SSV Jahn Regensburg+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SpVgg Greuther Fürth ↓

SSV Jahn Regensburg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

SpVgg Greuther Fürth or draw

73%

SpVgg Greuther Fürth or SSV Jahn Regensburg

77%

Draw or SSV Jahn Regensburg

50%

Winning margin

SpVgg Greuther Fürth wins by 2+

27%

SSV Jahn Regensburg wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1+ goals

83%

SpVgg Greuther Fürth 2+ goals

53%

SpVgg Greuther Fürth 3+ goals

26%

SSV Jahn Regensburg 1+ goals

71%

SSV Jahn Regensburg 2+ goals

35%

SSV Jahn Regensburg 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

SpVgg Greuther Fürth (draw refunded)

65%

SSV Jahn Regensburg (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SpVgg Greuther Fürth at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.31 · 121 matches

SSV Jahn Regensburg away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.95 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 1.60 + SSV Jahn Regensburg defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.77

SSV Jahn Regensburg attack 1.16 + SpVgg Greuther Fürth defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

SpVgg Greuther Fürth scores more

50%

level

23%

SSV Jahn Regensburg scores more

27%

SpVgg Greuther Fürth at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "SpVgg Greuther Fürth will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

14

J. Consbruch

SpVgg Greuther Fürth · M

8.9

Match Events

6'

S. Adamyan↳ B. Hein

31'

J. Consbruch

37'

D. Srbeny↳ J. Consbruch

46'

T. Handwerker← B. Hein

63'

S. Asta← M. Meyerhöfer

63'

N. Futkeu← J. Mause

64'

Noah Loosli

68'

C. Viet← A. Geipl

69'

A. Suhonen← C. Kühlwetter

74'

S. Bansé← J. Consbruch

74'

R. Massimo← D. Srbeny

77'

81'

81'

90+6'

90+3'

90+1'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SpVggSSV

Overview

45%Possession55%

19Total Shots12

9Corners3

10Fouls14

Shots

19Total Shots12

4On Target2

6Off Target1

9Blocked9

16Inside Box6

3Outside Box6

Passing

45%Possession55%

313Total Passes387

213Accurate Passes271

68%Pass Accuracy70%

Goalkeeping

1Saves2

Discipline

10Fouls14

1Yellow Cards3

1Offsides3