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SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs SSV Jahn Regensburg — Friendlies Clubs 2026

SpVgg Greuther Fürth
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
SSV Jahn Regensburg
SSV Jahn Regensburg
1/10/2026Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendly

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

SpVgg Greuther Fürth35%
×Draw23%
SSV Jahn Regensburg42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SpVgg Greuther Fürth
1.53
SSV Jahn Regensburg
1.70

SSV Jahn Regensburg creates 11% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 10 away

creates per match

SpVgg Greuther Fürth
2.07
SSV Jahn Regensburg
2.10

allows per match

SpVgg Greuther Fürth
1.29
SSV Jahn Regensburg
1.00

finishing

SpVgg Greuther Fürth+0.00on par
SSV Jahn Regensburg+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SpVgg Greuther Fürth ↓

SSV Jahn Regensburg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

SpVgg Greuther Fürth or draw
58%
SpVgg Greuther Fürth or SSV Jahn Regensburg
77%
Draw or SSV Jahn Regensburg
65%

Winning margin

SpVgg Greuther Fürth wins by 2+
17%
SSV Jahn Regensburg wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1+ goals
78%
SpVgg Greuther Fürth 2+ goals
45%
SpVgg Greuther Fürth 3+ goals
20%
SSV Jahn Regensburg 1+ goals
82%
SSV Jahn Regensburg 2+ goals
51%
SSV Jahn Regensburg 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

SpVgg Greuther Fürth (draw refunded)
45%
SSV Jahn Regensburg (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SpVgg Greuther Fürth at home — creates 2.07, concedes 1.29 · 14 matches

SSV Jahn Regensburg away — creates 2.10, concedes 1.00 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 2.07 + SSV Jahn Regensburg defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.53

SSV Jahn Regensburg attack 2.10 + SpVgg Greuther Fürth defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

SpVgg Greuther Fürth scores more
35%
level
23%
SSV Jahn Regensburg scores more
42%

SSV Jahn Regensburg at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "SSV Jahn Regensburg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Clubs: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 0–2 SSV Jahn Regensburg

SSV Jahn Regensburg beat SpVgg Greuther Fürth 2-0 in Friendlies Clubs on January 10, 2026.