SpVgg Greuther Furth 2–1 Jahn Regensburg

SpVgg Greuther Furth

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Jahn Regensburg

D. Abiama 77'

J. Green 66' (pen)

P. Owusu 48'

4/14/2023

2. Bundesliga · Round 28Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 102+ matches

SpVgg Greuther Furth50%

×Draw23%

Jahn Regensburg27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SpVgg Greuther FurthExpected goals in this matchJahn Regensburg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.77

1.23

SpVgg Greuther Furth

1.77

Jahn Regensburg

1.23

SpVgg Greuther Furth creates 44% more chances

Season form · 121 home / 102 away

1.60

creates per match

1.16

1.31

allows per match

1.95

creates per match

SpVgg Greuther Furth

1.60

Jahn Regensburg

1.16

allows per match

SpVgg Greuther Furth

1.31

Jahn Regensburg

1.95

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

SpVgg Greuther Furth+0.00on par

Jahn Regensburg+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SpVgg Greuther Furth ↓

Jahn Regensburg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

SpVgg Greuther Furth or draw

73%

SpVgg Greuther Furth or Jahn Regensburg

77%

Draw or Jahn Regensburg

50%

Winning margin

SpVgg Greuther Furth wins by 2+

27%

Jahn Regensburg wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

SpVgg Greuther Furth 1+ goals

83%

SpVgg Greuther Furth 2+ goals

53%

SpVgg Greuther Furth 3+ goals

26%

Jahn Regensburg 1+ goals

71%

Jahn Regensburg 2+ goals

35%

Jahn Regensburg 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

SpVgg Greuther Furth (draw refunded)

65%

Jahn Regensburg (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SpVgg Greuther Furth at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.31 · 121 matches

Jahn Regensburg away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.95 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SpVgg Greuther Furth attack 1.60 + Jahn Regensburg defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.77

Jahn Regensburg attack 1.16 + SpVgg Greuther Furth defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

SpVgg Greuther Furth scores more

50%

level

23%

Jahn Regensburg scores more

27%

SpVgg Greuther Furth at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "SpVgg Greuther Furth will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

27

L. Itter

SpVgg Greuther Furth · D

7.5

Match Events

40'

45+3'

45+2'

48'

53'

53'

62'

64'

S. Griesbeck← G. Jung

66'

J. GreenPenalty

77'

D. Abiama↳ S. Asta

82'

B. Idrizi← C. Makridis

82'

A. Yildirim← S. Singh

82'

A. Albers← M. Thalhammer

89'

M. Gouras← L. Guwara

90+2'

M. Meyerhöfer← J. Green

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SpVggJahn

Overview

53%Possession47%

10Total Shots14

5Corners4

8Fouls6

Shots

10Total Shots14

4On Target4

5Off Target7

1Blocked3

4Inside Box7

6Outside Box7

Passing

53%Possession47%

466Total Passes416

367Accurate Passes325

79%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

Discipline

8Fouls6

2Yellow Cards1

2Offsides6