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SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Hertha BSC — 2. Bundesliga 2018

SpVgg Greuther Fürth
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
FT
3 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
Hertha BSC
Hertha BSC
D. Srbeny 81'
F. Klaus 58'
B. Hrgota 42'
L. Schuler 62', 36'
F. Reese 33'
12/12/20252. Bundesliga2. Bundesliga · Round 16Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

SpVgg Greuther Fürth41%
×Draw23%
Hertha BSC35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SpVgg Greuther Fürth
1.69
Hertha BSC
1.55

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 117 home / 51 away

creates per match

SpVgg Greuther Fürth
1.63
Hertha BSC
1.69

allows per match

SpVgg Greuther Fürth
1.41
Hertha BSC
1.76

finishing

SpVgg Greuther Fürth+0.00on par
Hertha BSC+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SpVgg Greuther Fürth ↓

Hertha BSC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

SpVgg Greuther Fürth or draw
65%
SpVgg Greuther Fürth or Hertha BSC
77%
Draw or Hertha BSC
59%

Winning margin

SpVgg Greuther Fürth wins by 2+
21%
Hertha BSC wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1+ goals
82%
SpVgg Greuther Fürth 2+ goals
50%
SpVgg Greuther Fürth 3+ goals
24%
Hertha BSC 1+ goals
79%
Hertha BSC 2+ goals
46%
Hertha BSC 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

SpVgg Greuther Fürth (draw refunded)
54%
Hertha BSC (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SpVgg Greuther Fürth at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.41 · 117 matches

Hertha BSC away — creates 1.69, concedes 1.76 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 1.63 + Hertha BSC defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.69

Hertha BSC attack 1.69 + SpVgg Greuther Fürth defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

SpVgg Greuther Fürth scores more
41%
level
23%
Hertha BSC scores more
35%

SpVgg Greuther Fürth at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "SpVgg Greuther Fürth will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10
B. HrgotaSpVgg Greuther FürthSpVgg Greuther Fürth · F
9.2

Match Events

24'
Márton Dárdai
28'
Michaël CuisanceGoal cancelled
33'
F. Reese↳ M. Cuisance
36'
L. Schuler↳ M. Cuisance
42'
B. Hrgota↳ J. Dehm
56'
Marten Winkler
58'
F. Klaus↳ B. Hrgota
62'
L. Schuler↳ M. Karbownik
65'
Philipp Ziereis
67'
N. Kolbe← M. Dardai
67'
D. Kownacki← L. Schuler
78'
D. Srbeny← N. Futkeu
81'
D. Srbeny
85'
Michaël Cuisance
86'
D. Zeefuik← K. Eichhorn
86'
M. Krattenmacher← M. Winkler
88'
Felix Klaus
89'
D. Demme← M. Cuisance
90+5'
J. Consbruch← F. Klaus
90+5'
F. Higl← B. Hrgota

Possession

50%SpVgg

Shots

14SpVgg

Pass accuracy

50%SpVgg

Statistics

SpVggHertha
Overview
50%Possession50%
14Total Shots17
2.43Expected Goals (xG)1.62
2Corners4
13Fouls12
Shots
14Total Shots17
6On Target7
5Off Target6
3Blocked4
10Inside Box15
4Outside Box2
Passing
50%Possession50%
416Total Passes411
345Accurate Passes347
83%Pass Accuracy84%
Goalkeeping
3Saves3
Discipline
13Fouls12
2Yellow Cards3
1Offsides3

Match Recap: SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Hertha BSC

SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Hertha BSC drew 3-3 in 2. Bundesliga on December 12, 2025.

Goals: F. Reese (33'), L. Schuler (36', 62'), B. Hrgota (42'), F. Klaus (58'), D. Srbeny (81').

SpVgg Greuther Fürth controlled possession (50%) and registered 14 shots to 17.

The match was played at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer in Furth.