Hertha BSC 2–1 SpVgg Greuther Fürth: Result & Stats

Hertha BSC

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

SpVgg Greuther Fürth

M. Cuisance 84'

K. Eichhorn 55'

N. Futkeu 88'

5/10/2026

2. Bundesliga · Round 33Olympiastadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Hertha BSC46%

×Draw24%

SpVgg Greuther Fürth30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hertha BSCExpected goals in this matchSpVgg Greuther Fürth

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.62

1.25

Hertha BSC

1.62

SpVgg Greuther Fürth

1.25

Hertha BSC creates 30% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 119 away

1.55

creates per match

1.25

allows per match

1.69

creates per match

Hertha BSC

1.55

SpVgg Greuther Fürth

1.25

allows per match

Hertha BSC

1.25

SpVgg Greuther Fürth

1.69

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hertha BSC+0.00on par

SpVgg Greuther Fürth+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hertha BSC ↓

SpVgg Greuther Fürth →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Hertha BSC or draw

70%

Hertha BSC or SpVgg Greuther Fürth

76%

Draw or SpVgg Greuther Fürth

54%

Winning margin

Hertha BSC wins by 2+

24%

SpVgg Greuther Fürth wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Hertha BSC 1+ goals

80%

Hertha BSC 2+ goals

48%

Hertha BSC 3+ goals

22%

SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1+ goals

71%

SpVgg Greuther Fürth 2+ goals

36%

SpVgg Greuther Fürth 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Hertha BSC (draw refunded)

61%

SpVgg Greuther Fürth (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hertha BSC at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.25 · 51 matches

SpVgg Greuther Fürth away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.69 · 119 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hertha BSC attack 1.55 + SpVgg Greuther Fürth defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.62

SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 1.25 + Hertha BSC defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Hertha BSC scores more

46%

level

24%

SpVgg Greuther Fürth scores more

30%

Hertha BSC at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Hertha BSC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

2

J. Eitschberger

Hertha BSC · D

8.7

Match Events

32'

Josip Brekalo

37'

Jannik Dehm

55'

K. Eichhorn↳ F. Reese

60'

F. Higl← P. Ziereis

60'

S. Ltaief← M. Dietz

70'

P. Klemens← K. Eichhorn

70'

70'

72'

78'

79'

G. Itter← J. Dehm

81'

L. Schuler← F. Reese

81'

T. Leistner← J. Eitschberger

84'

M. Cuisance↳ M. Karbownik

88'

N. Futkeu↳ S. Ltaief

89'

J. Dudziak← P. Seguin

89'

D. Demme← M. Cuisance

90+3'

Tjark Ernst

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

HerthaSpVgg

Overview

35%Possession65%

8Total Shots29

1.02Expected Goals (xG)2.27

2Corners18

11Fouls7

Shots

8Total Shots29

5On Target3

3Off Target14

0Blocked12

4Inside Box19

4Outside Box10

Passing

35%Possession65%

285Total Passes520

222Accurate Passes449

78%Pass Accuracy86%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

-0.87Goals Prevented-0.87

Discipline

11Fouls7

3Yellow Cards1

1Red Cards0

3Offsides5

Match Recap: Hertha BSC vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth

Hertha BSC beat SpVgg Greuther Fürth 2-1 in 2. Bundesliga on May 10, 2026.

Goals: K. Eichhorn (55'), M. Cuisance (84'), N. Futkeu (88').

SpVgg Greuther Fürth controlled possession (65%) and registered 29 shots to 8.

The match was played at Olympiastadion in Berlin.

Hertha BSC vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth — 2. Bundesliga 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Hertha BSC vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth