Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

SpVgg Greuther Furth vs Hertha Berlin — 2. Bundesliga 2018

SpVgg Greuther Furth
SpVgg Greuther Furth
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Hertha Berlin
Hertha Berlin
2/11/20242. Bundesliga2. Bundesliga · Round 21Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

SpVgg Greuther Furth41%
×Draw23%
Hertha Berlin35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SpVgg Greuther Furth
1.69
Hertha Berlin
1.55

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 119 home / 51 away

creates per match

SpVgg Greuther Furth
1.61
Hertha Berlin
1.69

allows per match

SpVgg Greuther Furth
1.42
Hertha Berlin
1.76

finishing

SpVgg Greuther Furth+0.00on par
Hertha Berlin+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SpVgg Greuther Furth ↓

Hertha Berlin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

SpVgg Greuther Furth or draw
65%
SpVgg Greuther Furth or Hertha Berlin
77%
Draw or Hertha Berlin
59%

Winning margin

SpVgg Greuther Furth wins by 2+
21%
Hertha Berlin wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

SpVgg Greuther Furth 1+ goals
82%
SpVgg Greuther Furth 2+ goals
50%
SpVgg Greuther Furth 3+ goals
24%
Hertha Berlin 1+ goals
79%
Hertha Berlin 2+ goals
46%
Hertha Berlin 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

SpVgg Greuther Furth (draw refunded)
54%
Hertha Berlin (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SpVgg Greuther Furth at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.42 · 119 matches

Hertha Berlin away — creates 1.69, concedes 1.76 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SpVgg Greuther Furth attack 1.61 + Hertha Berlin defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.69

Hertha Berlin attack 1.69 + SpVgg Greuther Furth defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

SpVgg Greuther Furth scores more
41%
level
23%
Hertha Berlin scores more
35%

SpVgg Greuther Furth at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "SpVgg Greuther Furth will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

2. Bundesliga: SpVgg Greuther Furth 1–2 Hertha Berlin

Hertha Berlin beat SpVgg Greuther Furth 2-1 in 2. Bundesliga on February 11, 2024.

The match was played at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer in Fürth.