SpVgg Greuther Fürth 2–1 Hertha BSC: Result & Stats

SpVgg Greuther Fürth

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Hertha BSC

N. Futkeu 55', 38'

I. Maza 5'

12/7/2024

2. Bundesliga · Round 15Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

SpVgg Greuther Fürth41%

×Draw23%

Hertha BSC35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SpVgg Greuther FürthExpected goals in this matchHertha BSC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.69

1.55

SpVgg Greuther Fürth

1.69

Hertha BSC

1.55

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 117 home / 51 away

1.63

creates per match

1.69

1.41

allows per match

1.76

creates per match

SpVgg Greuther Fürth

1.63

Hertha BSC

1.69

allows per match

SpVgg Greuther Fürth

1.41

Hertha BSC

1.76

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

SpVgg Greuther Fürth+0.00on par

Hertha BSC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SpVgg Greuther Fürth ↓

Hertha BSC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

63%37%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

SpVgg Greuther Fürth or draw

65%

SpVgg Greuther Fürth or Hertha BSC

77%

Draw or Hertha BSC

59%

Winning margin

SpVgg Greuther Fürth wins by 2+

21%

Hertha BSC wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1+ goals

82%

SpVgg Greuther Fürth 2+ goals

50%

SpVgg Greuther Fürth 3+ goals

24%

Hertha BSC 1+ goals

79%

Hertha BSC 2+ goals

46%

Hertha BSC 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

SpVgg Greuther Fürth (draw refunded)

54%

Hertha BSC (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SpVgg Greuther Fürth at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.41 · 117 matches

Hertha BSC away — creates 1.69, concedes 1.76 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 1.63 + Hertha BSC defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.69

Hertha BSC attack 1.69 + SpVgg Greuther Fürth defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

SpVgg Greuther Fürth scores more

41%

level

23%

Hertha BSC scores more

35%

SpVgg Greuther Fürth at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "SpVgg Greuther Fürth will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

N. Futkeu

SpVgg Greuther Fürth · F

8.2

Match Events

5'

I. Maza↳ P. Klemens

38'

N. Futkeu↳ G. Jung

46'

F. Niederlechner← L. Schuler

46'

D. Scherhant← J. Þorsteinsson

53'

54'

55'

61'

65'

D. Srbeny← R. Massimo

67'

68'

77'

77'

79'

D. Michalski← N. Futkeu

80'

81'

88'

90+6'

90+6'

S. Asta← M. Meyerhöfer

90+5'

R. Münz← N. Gießelmann

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SpVggHertha

Overview

42%Possession58%

16Total Shots12

6Corners10

8Fouls11

Shots

16Total Shots12

6On Target3

5Off Target5

5Blocked4

11Inside Box8

5Outside Box4

Passing

42%Possession58%

351Total Passes486

286Accurate Passes411

81%Pass Accuracy85%

Goalkeeping

2Saves4

Discipline

8Fouls11

4Yellow Cards3

1Red Cards0

0Offsides3