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SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Hamburger SV — 2. Bundesliga 2018

SpVgg Greuther Fürth
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Hamburger SV
Hamburger SV
F. Klaus 63', 57' (pen), 41'
R. Glatzel 67' (pen)
J. Dompé 50'
5/18/20252. Bundesliga2. Bundesliga · Round 34Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 109+ matches

SpVgg Greuther Fürth37%
×Draw24%
Hamburger SV39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SpVgg Greuther Fürth
1.52
Hamburger SV
1.56

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 121 home / 109 away

creates per match

SpVgg Greuther Fürth
1.60
Hamburger SV
1.80

allows per match

SpVgg Greuther Fürth
1.31
Hamburger SV
1.43

finishing

SpVgg Greuther Fürth+0.00on par
Hamburger SV+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 59Under: 4159%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 62No: 3862%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SpVgg Greuther Fürth ↓

Hamburger SV →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

SpVgg Greuther Fürth or draw
61%
SpVgg Greuther Fürth or Hamburger SV
76%
Draw or Hamburger SV
63%

Winning margin

SpVgg Greuther Fürth wins by 2+
18%
Hamburger SV wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1+ goals
78%
SpVgg Greuther Fürth 2+ goals
45%
SpVgg Greuther Fürth 3+ goals
20%
Hamburger SV 1+ goals
79%
Hamburger SV 2+ goals
46%
Hamburger SV 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

SpVgg Greuther Fürth (draw refunded)
49%
Hamburger SV (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SpVgg Greuther Fürth at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.31 · 121 matches

Hamburger SV away — creates 1.80, concedes 1.43 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 1.60 + Hamburger SV defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.52

Hamburger SV attack 1.80 + SpVgg Greuther Fürth defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

SpVgg Greuther Fürth scores more
37%
level
24%
Hamburger SV scores more
39%

Hamburger SV at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Hamburger SV will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

30
F. KlausSpVgg Greuther FürthSpVgg Greuther Fürth · F
9.9

Match Events

17'
Marco John
41'
F. Klaus
50'
J. Dompé
57'
F. KlausPenalty
60'
J. Green← J. Consbruch
63'
F. Klaus↳ G. Itter
67'
R. GlatzelPenalty
70'
E. Sahiti← Fábio Baldé
70'
M. Richter← W. Mikelbrencis
70'
D. Selke← A. Karabec
76'
N. Gießelmann← M. John
76'
D. Srbeny← N. Futkeu
82'
A. Røssing-Lelesiit← J. Meffert
83'
M. Meyerhöfer← S. Asta
87'
Felix Klaus
90+7'
Niko Giesselmann
90'
Gideon Jung
90'
Davie Selke
90+8'
Daniel ElfadliGoal cancelled
90+2'
Robert GlatzelPenalty cancelled

Possession

SpVgg: 38Hamburger: 6238%SpVgg

Shots

SpVgg: 12Hamburger: 1512SpVgg

Pass accuracy

SpVgg: 74Hamburger: 8746%SpVgg

Statistics

SpVggHamburger
Overview
38%Possession62%
12Total Shots15
4Corners7
13Fouls13
Shots
12Total Shots15
4On Target5
3Off Target5
5Blocked5
8Inside Box9
4Outside Box6
Passing
38%Possession62%
293Total Passes462
217Accurate Passes404
74%Pass Accuracy87%
Goalkeeping
3Saves1
Discipline
13Fouls13
4Yellow Cards1
2Offsides4

2. Bundesliga: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 3–2 Hamburger SV

SpVgg Greuther Fürth beat Hamburger SV 3-2 in 2. Bundesliga on May 18, 2025.

Goals: F. Klaus (41', 57' pen, 63'), J. Dompé (50'), R. Glatzel (67' pen).

Hamburger SV controlled possession (62%) and registered 15 shots to 12.

The match was played at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer in Fürth.