SpVgg Greuther Furth 1–1 Hamburger SV

SpVgg Greuther Furth

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Hamburger SV

J. Consbruch 77'

M. Muheim 56'

3/31/2024

2. Bundesliga · Round 27Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 109+ matches

SpVgg Greuther Furth37%

×Draw24%

Hamburger SV39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SpVgg Greuther FurthExpected goals in this matchHamburger SV

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.56

SpVgg Greuther Furth

1.52

Hamburger SV

1.56

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 121 home / 109 away

1.60

creates per match

1.80

1.31

allows per match

1.43

creates per match

SpVgg Greuther Furth

1.60

Hamburger SV

1.80

allows per match

SpVgg Greuther Furth

1.31

Hamburger SV

1.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

SpVgg Greuther Furth+0.00on par

Hamburger SV+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SpVgg Greuther Furth ↓

Hamburger SV →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

SpVgg Greuther Furth or draw

61%

SpVgg Greuther Furth or Hamburger SV

76%

Draw or Hamburger SV

63%

Winning margin

SpVgg Greuther Furth wins by 2+

18%

Hamburger SV wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

SpVgg Greuther Furth 1+ goals

78%

SpVgg Greuther Furth 2+ goals

45%

SpVgg Greuther Furth 3+ goals

20%

Hamburger SV 1+ goals

79%

Hamburger SV 2+ goals

46%

Hamburger SV 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

SpVgg Greuther Furth (draw refunded)

49%

Hamburger SV (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SpVgg Greuther Furth at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.31 · 121 matches

Hamburger SV away — creates 1.80, concedes 1.43 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SpVgg Greuther Furth attack 1.60 + Hamburger SV defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.52

Hamburger SV attack 1.80 + SpVgg Greuther Furth defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

SpVgg Greuther Furth scores more

37%

level

24%

Hamburger SV scores more

39%

Hamburger SV at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Hamburger SV will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

18

B. Jatta

Hamburger SV · F

8.3

Match Events

23'

Dennis Hadžikadunić

36'

Armindo Sieb

46'

O. Haddadi← N. Gießelmann

46'

Guilherme Ramos← D. Hadžikadunić

49'

Miro Muheim

56'

M. Muheim↳ L. Bénes

64'

J. Consbruch← P. Müller

64'

A. Suhonen← I. Pherai

72'

T. Lemperle← L. Petkov

72'

D. Srbeny← A. Sieb

73'

Oussama Haddadi

76'

Ł. Poręba← L. Bénes

76'

L. Öztunalı← A. Németh

77'

J. Consbruch↳ O. Haddadi

86'

M. Okugawa← B. Jatta

90+2'

Jonas Meffert

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SpVggHamburger

Overview

38%Possession62%

4Total Shots16

3Corners7

8Fouls15

Shots

4Total Shots16

1On Target6

2Off Target6

1Blocked4

1Inside Box8

3Outside Box8

Passing

38%Possession62%

367Total Passes593

295Accurate Passes521

80%Pass Accuracy88%

Goalkeeping

5Saves1

Discipline

8Fouls15

2Yellow Cards3

3Offsides2