Hamburger SV 2–1 SpVgg Greuther Furth

Hamburger SV

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

SpVgg Greuther Furth

L. Bénes 69' (pen)

M. Muheim 27'

L. Petkov 84'

5/20/2023

2. Bundesliga · Round 33Volksparkstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 109+ matches

Hamburger SV53%

×Draw23%

SpVgg Greuther Furth24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hamburger SVExpected goals in this matchSpVgg Greuther Furth

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.88

1.19

Hamburger SV

1.88

SpVgg Greuther Furth

1.19

Hamburger SV creates 58% more chances

Season form · 109 home / 127 away

2.15

creates per match

1.28

1.09

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

Hamburger SV

2.15

SpVgg Greuther Furth

1.28

allows per match

Hamburger SV

1.09

SpVgg Greuther Furth

1.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hamburger SV+0.00on par

SpVgg Greuther Furth+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hamburger SV ↓

SpVgg Greuther Furth →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Hamburger SV or draw

76%

Hamburger SV or SpVgg Greuther Furth

77%

Draw or SpVgg Greuther Furth

47%

Winning margin

Hamburger SV wins by 2+

30%

SpVgg Greuther Furth wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Hamburger SV 1+ goals

85%

Hamburger SV 2+ goals

56%

Hamburger SV 3+ goals

29%

SpVgg Greuther Furth 1+ goals

70%

SpVgg Greuther Furth 2+ goals

33%

SpVgg Greuther Furth 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Hamburger SV (draw refunded)

69%

SpVgg Greuther Furth (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hamburger SV at home — creates 2.15, concedes 1.09 · 109 matches

SpVgg Greuther Furth away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.60 · 127 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hamburger SV attack 2.15 + SpVgg Greuther Furth defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.88

SpVgg Greuther Furth attack 1.28 + Hamburger SV defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Hamburger SV scores more

53%

level

23%

SpVgg Greuther Furth scores more

24%

Hamburger SV at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Hamburger SV will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

24

M. John

SpVgg Greuther Furth · M

7.7

Match Events

19'

27'

45+2'

46'

62'

62'

67'

69'

L. BénesPenalty

77'

R. Königsdörffer← J. Dompé

77'

S. Asta← M. Meyerhöfer

78'

Afimico Pululu← G. Jung

82'

84'

86'

87'

87'

88'

T. Raschl← M. Christiansen

89'

A. Suhonen← S. Kittel

90+3'

Ransford Yeboah Königsdörffer

90+6'

Dickson Abiama

90+6'

Dickson AbiamaCard upgrade

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

HamburgerSpVgg

Overview

45%Possession55%

13Total Shots15

1Corners7

18Fouls12

Shots

13Total Shots15

3On Target3

8Off Target6

2Blocked6

6Inside Box8

7Outside Box7

Passing

45%Possession55%

366Total Passes445

276Accurate Passes354

75%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

2Saves1

Discipline

18Fouls12

5Yellow Cards2

1Red Cards1

4Offsides1

Match Recap: Hamburger SV vs SpVgg Greuther Furth

Hamburger SV beat SpVgg Greuther Furth 2-1 in 2. Bundesliga on May 20, 2023.

Goals: M. Muheim (27'), L. Bénes (69' pen), L. Petkov (84').

SpVgg Greuther Furth controlled possession (55%) and registered 15 shots to 13.

The match was played at Volksparkstadion in Hamburg.

Hamburger SV vs SpVgg Greuther Furth — 2. Bundesliga 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Hamburger SV vs SpVgg Greuther Furth