Hamburger SV 2–0 SpVgg Greuther Furth

Hamburger SV

FT

2 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

SpVgg Greuther Furth

R. Glatzel 45+4'

J. Meffert 16'

10/21/2023

2. Bundesliga · Round 10Volksparkstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 109+ matches

Hamburger SV53%

×Draw23%

SpVgg Greuther Furth24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hamburger SVExpected goals in this matchSpVgg Greuther Furth

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.88

1.19

Hamburger SV

1.88

SpVgg Greuther Furth

1.19

Hamburger SV creates 58% more chances

Season form · 109 home / 127 away

2.15

creates per match

1.28

1.09

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

Hamburger SV

2.15

SpVgg Greuther Furth

1.28

allows per match

Hamburger SV

1.09

SpVgg Greuther Furth

1.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hamburger SV+0.00on par

SpVgg Greuther Furth+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hamburger SV ↓

SpVgg Greuther Furth →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Hamburger SV or draw

76%

Hamburger SV or SpVgg Greuther Furth

77%

Draw or SpVgg Greuther Furth

47%

Winning margin

Hamburger SV wins by 2+

30%

SpVgg Greuther Furth wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Hamburger SV 1+ goals

85%

Hamburger SV 2+ goals

56%

Hamburger SV 3+ goals

29%

SpVgg Greuther Furth 1+ goals

70%

SpVgg Greuther Furth 2+ goals

33%

SpVgg Greuther Furth 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Hamburger SV (draw refunded)

69%

SpVgg Greuther Furth (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hamburger SV at home — creates 2.15, concedes 1.09 · 109 matches

SpVgg Greuther Furth away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.60 · 127 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hamburger SV attack 2.15 + SpVgg Greuther Furth defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.88

SpVgg Greuther Furth attack 1.28 + Hamburger SV defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Hamburger SV scores more

53%

level

23%

SpVgg Greuther Furth scores more

24%

Hamburger SV at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Hamburger SV will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

L. Bénes

Hamburger SV · M

8.2

Match Events

10'

M. Heyer← I. Van der Brempt

15'

16'

26'

32'

38'

39'

Bakery JattaCard reviewed

45+10'

Damian Michalski

45+3'

Tim Lemperle

45+4'

R. Glatzel↳ I. Pherai

46'

L. Petkov← R. Wagner

46'

M. Meyerhöfer← O. Haddadi

46'

O. Kiomourtzoglou← M. Dietz

58'

Dickson Abiama

67'

D. Srbeny← S. Asta

76'

R. Königsdörffer← J. Dompé

79'

A. Sieb← B. Hrgota

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

HamburgerSpVgg

Overview

44%Possession56%

18Total Shots14

6Corners7

12Fouls12

Shots

18Total Shots14

4On Target3

7Off Target7

7Blocked4

13Inside Box10

5Outside Box4

Passing

44%Possession56%

420Total Passes534

338Accurate Passes443

80%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

Discipline

12Fouls12

2Yellow Cards4

5Offsides2