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SpVgg Greuther Furth vs FC Wurzburger Kickers — 2. Bundesliga 2018

SpVgg Greuther Furth
SpVgg Greuther Furth
FT
4 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
FC Wurzburger Kickers
FC Wurzburger Kickers
R. Kehr 87'
B. Hrgota 80' (pen), 50'
D. Abiama 28'
R. Munsy 15'
2/7/20212. Bundesliga2. Bundesliga · Round 20Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

SpVgg Greuther Furth53%
×Draw23%
FC Wurzburger Kickers24%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SpVgg Greuther Furth
1.79
FC Wurzburger Kickers
1.13

SpVgg Greuther Furth creates 58% more chances

Season form · 117 home / 20 away

creates per match

SpVgg Greuther Furth
1.63
FC Wurzburger Kickers
0.85

allows per match

SpVgg Greuther Furth
1.41
FC Wurzburger Kickers
1.95

finishing

SpVgg Greuther Furth+0.00on par
FC Wurzburger Kickers+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SpVgg Greuther Furth ↓

FC Wurzburger Kickers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

SpVgg Greuther Furth or draw
76%
SpVgg Greuther Furth or FC Wurzburger Kickers
77%
Draw or FC Wurzburger Kickers
47%

Winning margin

SpVgg Greuther Furth wins by 2+
29%
FC Wurzburger Kickers wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

SpVgg Greuther Furth 1+ goals
83%
SpVgg Greuther Furth 2+ goals
53%
SpVgg Greuther Furth 3+ goals
26%
FC Wurzburger Kickers 1+ goals
68%
FC Wurzburger Kickers 2+ goals
31%
FC Wurzburger Kickers 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

SpVgg Greuther Furth (draw refunded)
69%
FC Wurzburger Kickers (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SpVgg Greuther Furth at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.41 · 117 matches

FC Wurzburger Kickers away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.95 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SpVgg Greuther Furth attack 1.63 + FC Wurzburger Kickers defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.79

FC Wurzburger Kickers attack 0.85 + SpVgg Greuther Furth defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

SpVgg Greuther Furth scores more
53%
level
23%
FC Wurzburger Kickers scores more
24%

SpVgg Greuther Furth at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "SpVgg Greuther Furth will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

30
S. BurchertSpVgg Greuther FurthSpVgg Greuther Furth · G
8.2

Match Events

15'
Ridge MunsyPenalty confirmed
15'
R. Munsy↳ P. Sontheimer
17'
Sascha Burchert
28'
D. Abiama
45'
Maximilian Bauer
46'
H. Sarpei← M. Mavraj
46'
J. Leweling← T. Tillman
50'
B. Hrgota↳ D. Abiama
54'
R. van La Parra← M. Pieringer
61'
Douglas
75'
Anton Stach
76'
Mitja Lotrič
80'
D. Baumann← M. Lotrič
80'
D. Kopacz← P. Sontheimer
80'
B. HrgotaPenalty
82'
R. Kehr← B. Hrgota
82'
H. Nielsen← D. Abiama
87'
R. Kehr↳ D. Raum
88'
M. Ćavar← P. Seguin
90'
Daniel Hägele

Possession

56%SpVgg

Shots

12SpVgg

Pass accuracy

54%SpVgg

Statistics

SpVggFC
Overview
56%Possession44%
12Total Shots14
11Corners6
12Fouls12
Shots
12Total Shots14
7On Target8
2Off Target2
3Blocked4
10Inside Box11
2Outside Box3
Passing
56%Possession44%
466Total Passes358
366Accurate Passes245
79%Pass Accuracy68%
Goalkeeping
7Saves3
Discipline
12Fouls12
3Yellow Cards3
4Offsides2

Match Recap: SpVgg Greuther Furth vs FC Wurzburger Kickers

SpVgg Greuther Furth beat FC Wurzburger Kickers 4-1 in 2. Bundesliga on February 7, 2021.

Goals: R. Munsy (15'), D. Abiama (28'), B. Hrgota (50', 80' pen), R. Kehr (87').

SpVgg Greuther Furth controlled possession (56%) and registered 12 shots to 14.

The match was played at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer in Fürth.