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FC Wurzburger Kickers vs SpVgg Greuther Furth — 2. Bundesliga 2018

FC Wurzburger Kickers
FC Wurzburger Kickers
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
SpVgg Greuther Furth
SpVgg Greuther Furth
2/24/20172. Bundesliga2. Bundesliga · Round 22Flyeralarm Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

FC Wurzburger Kickers37%
×Draw26%
SpVgg Greuther Furth38%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Wurzburger Kickers
1.34
SpVgg Greuther Furth
1.36

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 29 home / 119 away

creates per match

FC Wurzburger Kickers
1.00
SpVgg Greuther Furth
1.25

allows per match

FC Wurzburger Kickers
1.48
SpVgg Greuther Furth
1.69

finishing

FC Wurzburger Kickers+0.00on par
SpVgg Greuther Furth+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Wurzburger Kickers ↓

SpVgg Greuther Furth →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

FC Wurzburger Kickers or draw
62%
FC Wurzburger Kickers or SpVgg Greuther Furth
74%
Draw or SpVgg Greuther Furth
63%

Winning margin

FC Wurzburger Kickers wins by 2+
16%
SpVgg Greuther Furth wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

FC Wurzburger Kickers 1+ goals
74%
FC Wurzburger Kickers 2+ goals
39%
FC Wurzburger Kickers 3+ goals
15%
SpVgg Greuther Furth 1+ goals
74%
SpVgg Greuther Furth 2+ goals
39%
SpVgg Greuther Furth 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

FC Wurzburger Kickers (draw refunded)
49%
SpVgg Greuther Furth (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Wurzburger Kickers at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.48 · 29 matches

SpVgg Greuther Furth away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.69 · 119 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Wurzburger Kickers attack 1.00 + SpVgg Greuther Furth defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.34

SpVgg Greuther Furth attack 1.25 + FC Wurzburger Kickers defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

FC Wurzburger Kickers scores more
37%
level
26%
SpVgg Greuther Furth scores more
38%

SpVgg Greuther Furth at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "SpVgg Greuther Furth will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FC Wurzburger Kickers vs SpVgg Greuther Furth

FC Wurzburger Kickers and SpVgg Greuther Furth drew 1-1 in 2. Bundesliga on February 24, 2017.

The match was played at Flyeralarm Arena in Wuerzburg.