FC Wurzburger Kickers 1–0 SpVgg Greuther Furth

FC Wurzburger Kickers

FT

1 – 0

SpVgg Greuther Furth

7/14/2021

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3flyeralarm-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

FC Wurzburger Kickers56%

×Draw20%

SpVgg Greuther Furth24%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC Wurzburger KickersExpected goals in this matchSpVgg Greuther Furth

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.30

1.46

FC Wurzburger Kickers

2.30

SpVgg Greuther Furth

1.46

FC Wurzburger Kickers creates 58% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 10 away

3.00

creates per match

2.20

0.71

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

FC Wurzburger Kickers

3.00

SpVgg Greuther Furth

2.20

allows per match

FC Wurzburger Kickers

0.71

SpVgg Greuther Furth

1.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FC Wurzburger Kickers+0.00on par

SpVgg Greuther Furth+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Wurzburger Kickers ↓

SpVgg Greuther Furth →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

72%28%3.5

51%49%4.5

32%68%

Double chance

FC Wurzburger Kickers or draw

76%

FC Wurzburger Kickers or SpVgg Greuther Furth

80%

Draw or SpVgg Greuther Furth

44%

Winning margin

FC Wurzburger Kickers wins by 2+

35%

SpVgg Greuther Furth wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

FC Wurzburger Kickers 1+ goals

90%

FC Wurzburger Kickers 2+ goals

67%

FC Wurzburger Kickers 3+ goals

40%

SpVgg Greuther Furth 1+ goals

77%

SpVgg Greuther Furth 2+ goals

43%

SpVgg Greuther Furth 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

FC Wurzburger Kickers (draw refunded)

70%

SpVgg Greuther Furth (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Wurzburger Kickers at home — creates 3.00, concedes 0.71 · 7 matches

SpVgg Greuther Furth away — creates 2.20, concedes 1.60 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Wurzburger Kickers attack 3.00 + SpVgg Greuther Furth defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 2.30

SpVgg Greuther Furth attack 2.20 + FC Wurzburger Kickers defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

FC Wurzburger Kickers scores more

56%

level

20%

SpVgg Greuther Furth scores more

24%

FC Wurzburger Kickers at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "FC Wurzburger Kickers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff