Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

SpVgg Greuther Furth vs FC Wurzburger Kickers — 2. Bundesliga 2018

SpVgg Greuther Furth
SpVgg Greuther Furth
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
FC Wurzburger Kickers
FC Wurzburger Kickers
9/16/20162. Bundesliga2. Bundesliga · Round 5Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

SpVgg Greuther Furth50%
×Draw24%
FC Wurzburger Kickers26%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SpVgg Greuther Furth
1.75
FC Wurzburger Kickers
1.19

SpVgg Greuther Furth creates 47% more chances

Season form · 116 home / 28 away

creates per match

SpVgg Greuther Furth
1.61
FC Wurzburger Kickers
0.93

allows per match

SpVgg Greuther Furth
1.44
FC Wurzburger Kickers
1.89

finishing

SpVgg Greuther Furth+0.00on par
FC Wurzburger Kickers+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SpVgg Greuther Furth ↓

FC Wurzburger Kickers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

SpVgg Greuther Furth or draw
74%
SpVgg Greuther Furth or FC Wurzburger Kickers
76%
Draw or FC Wurzburger Kickers
50%

Winning margin

SpVgg Greuther Furth wins by 2+
27%
FC Wurzburger Kickers wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

SpVgg Greuther Furth 1+ goals
83%
SpVgg Greuther Furth 2+ goals
52%
SpVgg Greuther Furth 3+ goals
25%
FC Wurzburger Kickers 1+ goals
70%
FC Wurzburger Kickers 2+ goals
33%
FC Wurzburger Kickers 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

SpVgg Greuther Furth (draw refunded)
66%
FC Wurzburger Kickers (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SpVgg Greuther Furth at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.44 · 116 matches

FC Wurzburger Kickers away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.89 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SpVgg Greuther Furth attack 1.61 + FC Wurzburger Kickers defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.75

FC Wurzburger Kickers attack 0.93 + SpVgg Greuther Furth defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

SpVgg Greuther Furth scores more
50%
level
24%
FC Wurzburger Kickers scores more
26%

SpVgg Greuther Furth at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "SpVgg Greuther Furth will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: SpVgg Greuther Furth vs FC Wurzburger Kickers

FC Wurzburger Kickers beat SpVgg Greuther Furth 3-0 in 2. Bundesliga on September 16, 2016.

The match was played at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer in Furth.