SpVgg Greuther Furth 1–0 Arminia Bielefeld

SpVgg Greuther Furth

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Arminia Bielefeld

A. Sieb 30'

10/28/2022

2. Bundesliga · Round 14Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

SpVgg Greuther Furth43%

×Draw24%

Arminia Bielefeld33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SpVgg Greuther FurthExpected goals in this matchArminia Bielefeld

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

1.36

SpVgg Greuther Furth

1.58

Arminia Bielefeld

1.36

SpVgg Greuther Furth creates 16% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 14 away

1.34

creates per match

1.05

1.67

allows per match

1.81

creates per match

SpVgg Greuther Furth

1.34

Arminia Bielefeld

1.05

allows per match

SpVgg Greuther Furth

1.67

Arminia Bielefeld

1.81

+0.06on par

finishing

-0.05on par

finishing

SpVgg Greuther Furth+0.06on par

Arminia Bielefeld-0.05on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SpVgg Greuther Furth ↓

Arminia Bielefeld →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

SpVgg Greuther Furth or draw

67%

SpVgg Greuther Furth or Arminia Bielefeld

76%

Draw or Arminia Bielefeld

57%

Winning margin

SpVgg Greuther Furth wins by 2+

21%

Arminia Bielefeld wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

SpVgg Greuther Furth 1+ goals

79%

SpVgg Greuther Furth 2+ goals

47%

SpVgg Greuther Furth 3+ goals

21%

Arminia Bielefeld 1+ goals

74%

Arminia Bielefeld 2+ goals

39%

Arminia Bielefeld 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

SpVgg Greuther Furth (draw refunded)

56%

Arminia Bielefeld (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SpVgg Greuther Furth at home — creates 1.34, concedes 1.67 · 10 matches

Arminia Bielefeld away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.81 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SpVgg Greuther Furth attack 1.34 + Arminia Bielefeld defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.58

Arminia Bielefeld attack 1.05 + SpVgg Greuther Furth defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

SpVgg Greuther Furth scores more

43%

level

24%

Arminia Bielefeld scores more

33%

SpVgg Greuther Furth at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "SpVgg Greuther Furth will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

3

Guilherme Ramos

Arminia Bielefeld · D

7.9

Match Events

21'

27'

30'

38'

55'

B. Lasme← M. Rzatkowski

55'

J. Serra← F. Klos

63'

C. Gebauer← L. Klünter

63'

S. Vasiliadis← J. Consbruch

64'

D. Abiama← A. Sieb

75'

Sebastian Vasiliadis

80'

G. Bello← I. Lepinjica

82'

S. Asta← M. Meyerhöfer

90+2'

G. Jung← T. Raschl

90+2'

Afimico Pululu← R. Ache

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SpVggArminia

Overview

45%Possession55%

15Total Shots9

6Corners3

12Fouls13

Shots

15Total Shots9

7On Target1

4Off Target7

4Blocked1

10Inside Box7

5Outside Box2

Passing

45%Possession55%

340Total Passes431

231Accurate Passes325

68%Pass Accuracy75%

Goalkeeping

1Saves5

Discipline

12Fouls13

2Yellow Cards2

4Offsides1