Arminia Bielefeld 1–1 SpVgg Greuther Furth

Arminia Bielefeld

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

SpVgg Greuther Furth

B. Lasme 17'

B. Hrgota 26' (pen)

5/5/2023

2. Bundesliga · Round 31SchücoArena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

Arminia Bielefeld57%

×Draw22%

SpVgg Greuther Furth20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Arminia BielefeldExpected goals in this matchSpVgg Greuther Furth

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.88

1.03

Arminia Bielefeld

1.88

SpVgg Greuther Furth

1.03

Arminia Bielefeld creates 83% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 12 away

2.14

creates per match

1.22

0.85

allows per match

1.62

creates per match

Arminia Bielefeld

2.14

SpVgg Greuther Furth

1.22

allows per match

Arminia Bielefeld

0.85

SpVgg Greuther Furth

1.62

+0.13scores more than expected

finishing

-0.05on par

finishing

Arminia Bielefeld+0.13scores more

SpVgg Greuther Furth-0.05on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arminia Bielefeld ↓

SpVgg Greuther Furth →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Arminia Bielefeld or draw

80%

Arminia Bielefeld or SpVgg Greuther Furth

78%

Draw or SpVgg Greuther Furth

43%

Winning margin

Arminia Bielefeld wins by 2+

33%

SpVgg Greuther Furth wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Arminia Bielefeld 1+ goals

85%

Arminia Bielefeld 2+ goals

56%

Arminia Bielefeld 3+ goals

29%

SpVgg Greuther Furth 1+ goals

64%

SpVgg Greuther Furth 2+ goals

28%

SpVgg Greuther Furth 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Arminia Bielefeld (draw refunded)

74%

SpVgg Greuther Furth (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arminia Bielefeld at home — creates 2.14, concedes 0.85 · 11 matches

SpVgg Greuther Furth away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.62 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arminia Bielefeld attack 2.14 + SpVgg Greuther Furth defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.88

SpVgg Greuther Furth attack 1.22 + Arminia Bielefeld defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Arminia Bielefeld scores more

57%

level

22%

SpVgg Greuther Furth scores more

20%

Arminia Bielefeld at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Arminia Bielefeld will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

13

M. Christiansen

SpVgg Greuther Furth · M

7.7

Match Events

17'

B. Lasme↳ M. Okugawa

26'

B. HrgotaPenalty

62'

G. Bello← B. Oczipka

62'

S. Vasiliadis← M. Prietl

62'

J. Consbruch← M. Rzatkowski

63'

D. Abiama← A. Sieb

71'

J. Serra← F. Klos

76'

T. Raschl← L. Petkov

78'

C. Gebauer← L. Klünter

88'

M. Dietz← J. Green

89'

S. Asta← M. Meyerhöfer

90+2'

Sebastian Griesbeck

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ArminiaSpVgg

Overview

48%Possession52%

16Total Shots10

8Corners5

14Fouls17

Shots

16Total Shots10

5On Target4

6Off Target4

5Blocked2

9Inside Box10

7Outside Box0

Passing

48%Possession52%

374Total Passes417

256Accurate Passes304

68%Pass Accuracy73%

Goalkeeping

3Saves4

Discipline

14Fouls17

0Yellow Cards1

4Offsides1