Arminia Bielefeld vs SpVgg Greuther Furth — Bundesliga 2010
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 34+ matches
Arminia Bielefeld46%
SpVgg Greuther Furth28%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Arminia Bielefeld creates 35% more chances
Season form · 34 home / 34 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under52
- Over48
Close call
Both teams score
- Yes52
- No48
Close call
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Arminia Bielefeld ↓
Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Arminia Bielefeld at home — creates 0.82, concedes 1.35 · 34 matches
SpVgg Greuther Furth away — creates 0.85, concedes 2.15 · 34 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Arminia Bielefeld attack 0.82 + SpVgg Greuther Furth defence 2.15 → ÷2 → 1.48
SpVgg Greuther Furth attack 0.85 + Arminia Bielefeld defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.10
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 46%?"
Arminia Bielefeld at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 46% does not mean "Arminia Bielefeld will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Player of the match
Match Events
Head to Head
5 previous meetings
Bayern München
Borussia Dortmund
RB Leipzig
VfB Stuttgart
1899 Hoffenheim
Bayer Leverkusen
SC Freiburg
Eintracht Frankfurt
FC Augsburg
FSV Mainz 05
Union Berlin
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Hamburger SV
1. FC Köln
Werder Bremen
VfL Wolfsburg
1. FC Heidenheim
FC St. Pauli
SC Paderborn 07If points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Possession
Shots
Pass accuracy
Statistics
Arminia Bielefeld host SpVgg Greuther Furth on Sunday, 16 January 2022 at 16:30. The match is part of the Bundesliga 2010/2011 season.
Match Recap: Arminia Bielefeld vs SpVgg Greuther Furth
Arminia Bielefeld and SpVgg Greuther Furth drew 2-2 in Bundesliga on January 16, 2022.
Goals: M. Okugawa (8'), J. Leweling (35'), H. Nielsen (67'), G. Castro (83').
SpVgg Greuther Furth controlled possession (56%) and registered 6 shots to 13.
The match was played at SchücoArena in Bielefeld.