Arminia Bielefeld 1–3 SpVgg Greuther Fürth

Arminia Bielefeld

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

SpVgg Greuther Fürth

M. Worl 50'

F. Klaus 90'

M. John 80'

N. Futkeu 25'

9/19/2025

2. Bundesliga · Round 6SchücoArena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

Arminia Bielefeld57%

×Draw22%

SpVgg Greuther Fürth20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Arminia BielefeldExpected goals in this matchSpVgg Greuther Fürth

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.88

1.03

Arminia Bielefeld

1.88

SpVgg Greuther Fürth

1.03

Arminia Bielefeld creates 83% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 12 away

2.14

creates per match

1.22

0.85

allows per match

1.62

creates per match

Arminia Bielefeld

2.14

SpVgg Greuther Fürth

1.22

allows per match

Arminia Bielefeld

0.85

SpVgg Greuther Fürth

1.62

+0.13scores more than expected

finishing

-0.05on par

finishing

Arminia Bielefeld+0.13scores more

SpVgg Greuther Fürth-0.05on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arminia Bielefeld ↓

SpVgg Greuther Fürth →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Arminia Bielefeld or draw

80%

Arminia Bielefeld or SpVgg Greuther Fürth

78%

Draw or SpVgg Greuther Fürth

43%

Winning margin

Arminia Bielefeld wins by 2+

33%

SpVgg Greuther Fürth wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Arminia Bielefeld 1+ goals

85%

Arminia Bielefeld 2+ goals

56%

Arminia Bielefeld 3+ goals

29%

SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1+ goals

64%

SpVgg Greuther Fürth 2+ goals

28%

SpVgg Greuther Fürth 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Arminia Bielefeld (draw refunded)

74%

SpVgg Greuther Fürth (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arminia Bielefeld at home — creates 2.14, concedes 0.85 · 11 matches

SpVgg Greuther Fürth away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.62 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arminia Bielefeld attack 2.14 + SpVgg Greuther Fürth defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.88

SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 1.22 + Arminia Bielefeld defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Arminia Bielefeld scores more

57%

level

22%

SpVgg Greuther Fürth scores more

20%

Arminia Bielefeld at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Arminia Bielefeld will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

30

F. Klaus

SpVgg Greuther Fürth · M

8.0

Match Events

25'

N. Futkeu↳ F. Klaus

36'

Felix Klaus

45'

Isaiah Young

46'

C. Lannert← T. Momuluh

46'

J. Kania← I. Young

50'

M. Worl↳ M. Corboz

65'

J. Consbruch← A. Keller

70'

R. Munz← B. Bjarnason

74'

A. Sicker← M. Worl

79'

J. Green← M. Olesen

79'

F. Higl← N. Futkeu

80'

M. John↳ F. Klaus

82'

Marvin Mehlem

87'

Branimir HrgotaGoal cancelled

87'

F. Micheler← M. Mehlem

87'

A. F. Ocansey V.← F. Hagmann

90'

F. Klaus↳ B. Hrgota

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ArminiaSpVgg

Overview

68%Possession32%

15Total Shots11

6Corners3

11Fouls22

Shots

15Total Shots11

5On Target7

8Off Target3

2Blocked1

7Inside Box8

8Outside Box3

Passing

68%Possession32%

598Total Passes281

496Accurate Passes180

83%Pass Accuracy64%

Goalkeeping

4Saves4

Discipline

11Fouls22

2Yellow Cards1

2Offsides1

Match Recap: Arminia Bielefeld vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth

SpVgg Greuther Fürth beat Arminia Bielefeld 3-1 in 2. Bundesliga on September 19, 2025.

Goals: N. Futkeu (25'), M. Worl (50'), M. John (80'), F. Klaus (90').

Arminia Bielefeld controlled possession (68%) and registered 15 shots to 11.

The match was played at SchücoArena in Bielefeld.

Arminia Bielefeld vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth — 2. Bundesliga 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Arminia Bielefeld vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth