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Sputnik vs Ruh Brest — Premier League 2018

Sputnik
Sputnik
CANC
00:00
Ruh Brest
Ruh Brest
9/17/2021Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 23Stadyen DYuSSh-8

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Sputnik14%
×Draw18%
Ruh Brest69%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sputnik
1.01
Ruh Brest
2.45

Ruh Brest creates 143% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 29 away

creates per match

Sputnik
0.86
Ruh Brest
1.76

allows per match

Sputnik
3.14
Ruh Brest
1.17

finishing

Sputnik+0.00on par
Ruh Brest+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sputnik ↓

Ruh Brest →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–18%
0–210%
0–38%
0–45%
1
1–03%
1–18%
1–210%
1–38%
1–45%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–25%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Sputnik or draw
31%
Sputnik or Ruh Brest
82%
Draw or Ruh Brest
86%

Winning margin

Sputnik wins by 2+
5%
Ruh Brest wins by 2+
46%

Team goals

Sputnik 1+ goals
64%
Sputnik 2+ goals
27%
Sputnik 3+ goals
8%
Ruh Brest 1+ goals
91%
Ruh Brest 2+ goals
70%
Ruh Brest 3+ goals
44%

Draw no bet

Sputnik (draw refunded)
17%
Ruh Brest (draw refunded)
83%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sputnik at home — creates 0.86, concedes 3.14 · 7 matches

Ruh Brest away — creates 1.76, concedes 1.17 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sputnik attack 0.86 + Ruh Brest defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.01

Ruh Brest attack 1.76 + Sputnik defence 3.14 → ÷2 → 2.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Sputnik scores more
14%
level
18%
Ruh Brest scores more
69%

Ruh Brest at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Ruh Brest will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Sputnik host Ruh Brest

September 17, 2021: Sputnik take on Ruh Brest in Premier League. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Sputnik host Ruh Brest at Stadyen DYuSSh-8.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.