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Ruh Brest vs Sputnik — Premier League 2018

Ruh Brest
Ruh Brest
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Sputnik
Sputnik
5/8/2021Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 8Stadyen DASK Brestski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Ruh Brest59%
×Draw22%
Sputnik18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ruh Brest
1.85
Sputnik
0.91

Ruh Brest creates 103% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 8 away

creates per match

Ruh Brest
1.83
Sputnik
0.75

allows per match

Ruh Brest
1.07
Sputnik
1.88

finishing

Ruh Brest+0.00on par
Sputnik+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ruh Brest ↓

Sputnik →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Ruh Brest or draw
82%
Ruh Brest or Sputnik
78%
Draw or Sputnik
41%

Winning margin

Ruh Brest wins by 2+
35%
Sputnik wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Ruh Brest 1+ goals
84%
Ruh Brest 2+ goals
55%
Ruh Brest 3+ goals
28%
Sputnik 1+ goals
60%
Sputnik 2+ goals
23%
Sputnik 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Ruh Brest (draw refunded)
77%
Sputnik (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ruh Brest at home — creates 1.83, concedes 1.07 · 30 matches

Sputnik away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.88 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ruh Brest attack 1.83 + Sputnik defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.85

Sputnik attack 0.75 + Ruh Brest defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Ruh Brest scores more
59%
level
22%
Sputnik scores more
18%

Ruh Brest at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Ruh Brest will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ruh Brest vs Sputnik

Ruh Brest beat Sputnik 2-0 in Premier League on May 8, 2021.

The match was played at Stadyen DASK Brestski in Brest.