Sputnik 2–2 Ruh Brest: Result & Stats | 1. Division

Sputnik

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Ruh Brest

7/20/2019

1. Division · Round 15Central'ny Stadyen (Rechytsa)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Sputnik31%

×Draw23%

Ruh Brest46%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SputnikExpected goals in this matchRuh Brest

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.43

1.77

Sputnik

1.43

Ruh Brest

1.77

Ruh Brest creates 24% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 14 away

2.00

creates per match

2.43

1.11

allows per match

0.86

creates per match

Sputnik

2.00

Ruh Brest

2.43

allows per match

Sputnik

1.11

Ruh Brest

0.86

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sputnik+0.00on par

Ruh Brest+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sputnik ↓

Ruh Brest →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–26%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Sputnik or draw

54%

Sputnik or Ruh Brest

77%

Draw or Ruh Brest

69%

Winning margin

Sputnik wins by 2+

14%

Ruh Brest wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Sputnik 1+ goals

76%

Sputnik 2+ goals

42%

Sputnik 3+ goals

17%

Ruh Brest 1+ goals

83%

Ruh Brest 2+ goals

53%

Ruh Brest 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

Sputnik (draw refunded)

41%

Ruh Brest (draw refunded)

59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sputnik at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.11 · 27 matches

Ruh Brest away — creates 2.43, concedes 0.86 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sputnik attack 2.00 + Ruh Brest defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.43

Ruh Brest attack 2.43 + Sputnik defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Sputnik scores more

31%

level

23%

Ruh Brest scores more

46%

Ruh Brest at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Ruh Brest will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff