Ruh Brest 2–2 Sputnik: Result & Stats | 1. Division

Ruh Brest

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Sputnik

11/23/2019

1. Division · Round 30Stadyen Junost (Brest)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Ruh Brest44%

×Draw25%

Sputnik31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ruh BrestExpected goals in this matchSputnik

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.55

1.28

Ruh Brest

1.55

Sputnik

1.28

Ruh Brest creates 21% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 27 away

2.21

creates per match

1.56

1.00

allows per match

0.89

creates per match

Ruh Brest

2.21

Sputnik

1.56

allows per match

Ruh Brest

1.00

Sputnik

0.89

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ruh Brest+0.00on par

Sputnik+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ruh Brest ↓

Sputnik →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

54%46%3.5

31%69%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Ruh Brest or draw

69%

Ruh Brest or Sputnik

75%

Draw or Sputnik

56%

Winning margin

Ruh Brest wins by 2+

22%

Sputnik wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Ruh Brest 1+ goals

79%

Ruh Brest 2+ goals

46%

Ruh Brest 3+ goals

20%

Sputnik 1+ goals

72%

Sputnik 2+ goals

37%

Sputnik 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Ruh Brest (draw refunded)

58%

Sputnik (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ruh Brest at home — creates 2.21, concedes 1.00 · 14 matches

Sputnik away — creates 1.56, concedes 0.89 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ruh Brest attack 2.21 + Sputnik defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.55

Sputnik attack 1.56 + Ruh Brest defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Ruh Brest scores more

44%

level

25%

Sputnik scores more

31%

Ruh Brest at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Ruh Brest will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff