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Sportivo Barracas vs Claypole — Primera C 2026

Sportivo Barracas
Sportivo Barracas
FT
0 – 5
HT: 0 – 0
Claypole
Claypole
L. Llodra 90' (pen), 70'
S. Villarreal 73'
C. Charles 55'
M. Coselli 48'
9/29/2024Primera CPrimera C · Clausura - 15Estadio Tres de Febrero

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 74+ matches

Sportivo Barracas37%
×Draw30%
Claypole33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sportivo Barracas
1.08
Claypole
1.02

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 74 home / 106 away

creates per match

Sportivo Barracas
1.16
Claypole
0.96

allows per match

Sportivo Barracas
1.09
Claypole
1.01

finishing

Sportivo Barracas+0.00on par
Claypole+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sportivo Barracas ↓

Claypole →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Sportivo Barracas or draw
67%
Sportivo Barracas or Claypole
70%
Draw or Claypole
63%

Winning margin

Sportivo Barracas wins by 2+
15%
Claypole wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Sportivo Barracas 1+ goals
66%
Sportivo Barracas 2+ goals
29%
Sportivo Barracas 3+ goals
10%
Claypole 1+ goals
64%
Claypole 2+ goals
27%
Claypole 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Sportivo Barracas (draw refunded)
52%
Claypole (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sportivo Barracas at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.09 · 74 matches

Claypole away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.01 · 106 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sportivo Barracas attack 1.16 + Claypole defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.08

Claypole attack 0.96 + Sportivo Barracas defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Sportivo Barracas scores more
37%
level
30%
Claypole scores more
33%

Sportivo Barracas at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Sportivo Barracas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

48'
M. Coselli
55'
C. Charles
70'
L. Llodra
73'
S. Villarreal
79'
T. Di Criscenzo
90'
L. LlodraPenalty

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sportivo Barracas vs Claypole

Claypole beat Sportivo Barracas 5-0 in Primera C on September 29, 2024.

Goals: M. Coselli (48'), C. Charles (55'), L. Llodra (70', 90' pen), S. Villarreal (73').

The match was played at Estadio Tres de Febrero in Tres de Febrero, Provincia de Buenos Aires.