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Sportivo Barracas vs Claypole — League #133 2026

Sportivo Barracas
Sportivo Barracas
FT
0 – 1
Claypole
Claypole
E. Diaz 17'
12/5/2020League #133League #133 · Upper Table Round - 1Estadio Nuevo Francisco Urbano

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Sportivo Barracas42%
×Draw28%
Claypole31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sportivo Barracas
1.29
Claypole
1.06

Sportivo Barracas creates 22% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 14 away

creates per match

Sportivo Barracas
1.44
Claypole
1.00

allows per match

Sportivo Barracas
1.13
Claypole
1.14

finishing

Sportivo Barracas+0.00on par
Claypole+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sportivo Barracas ↓

Claypole →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Sportivo Barracas or draw
69%
Sportivo Barracas or Claypole
72%
Draw or Claypole
58%

Winning margin

Sportivo Barracas wins by 2+
19%
Claypole wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Sportivo Barracas 1+ goals
72%
Sportivo Barracas 2+ goals
37%
Sportivo Barracas 3+ goals
14%
Claypole 1+ goals
65%
Claypole 2+ goals
29%
Claypole 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Sportivo Barracas (draw refunded)
58%
Claypole (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sportivo Barracas at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.13 · 16 matches

Claypole away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.14 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sportivo Barracas attack 1.44 + Claypole defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.29

Claypole attack 1.00 + Sportivo Barracas defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Sportivo Barracas scores more
42%
level
28%
Claypole scores more
31%

Sportivo Barracas at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Sportivo Barracas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

17'
E. Diaz

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sportivo Barracas vs Claypole

Claypole beat Sportivo Barracas 1-0 in League #133 on December 5, 2020.

Goals: E. Diaz (17').

The match was played at Estadio Nuevo Francisco Urbano in Morón, Provincia de Buenos Aires.