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Claypole vs Sportivo Barracas — Primera C 2026

Claypole
Claypole
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Sportivo Barracas
Sportivo Barracas
A. Caraballo 33'
4/12/2026Primera CPrimera C · Round 7

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

Claypole44%
×Draw30%
Sportivo Barracas26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Claypole
1.21
Sportivo Barracas
0.86

Claypole creates 41% more chances

Season form · 104 home / 70 away

creates per match

Claypole
1.19
Sportivo Barracas
0.81

allows per match

Claypole
0.91
Sportivo Barracas
1.23

finishing

Claypole+0.00on par
Sportivo Barracas+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Claypole ↓

Sportivo Barracas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–111%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Claypole or draw
74%
Claypole or Sportivo Barracas
70%
Draw or Sportivo Barracas
56%

Winning margin

Claypole wins by 2+
19%
Sportivo Barracas wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Claypole 1+ goals
70%
Claypole 2+ goals
34%
Claypole 3+ goals
12%
Sportivo Barracas 1+ goals
58%
Sportivo Barracas 2+ goals
21%
Sportivo Barracas 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Claypole (draw refunded)
63%
Sportivo Barracas (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Claypole at home — creates 1.19, concedes 0.91 · 104 matches

Sportivo Barracas away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.23 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Claypole attack 1.19 + Sportivo Barracas defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.21

Sportivo Barracas attack 0.81 + Claypole defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Claypole scores more
44%
level
30%
Sportivo Barracas scores more
26%

Claypole at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Claypole will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

33'
A. Caraballo

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Claypole vs Sportivo Barracas

Claypole beat Sportivo Barracas 1-0 in Primera C on April 12, 2026.

Goals: A. Caraballo (33').