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Claypole vs Sportivo Barracas — League #133 2026

Claypole
Claypole
CANC
21:00
Sportivo Barracas
Sportivo Barracas
4/18/2020League #133League #133 · Clausura - 11Estadio Rodolfo Vicente Capocasa (Claypole, Provincia de Buenos Aires)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Claypole36%
×Draw35%
Sportivo Barracas29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Claypole
0.89
Sportivo Barracas
0.76

Claypole creates 17% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 12 away

creates per match

Claypole
0.85
Sportivo Barracas
0.67

allows per match

Claypole
0.85
Sportivo Barracas
0.92

finishing

Claypole+0.00on par
Sportivo Barracas+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Under
  • Under77
  • Over23

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

69%No
  • No69
  • Yes31

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Claypole ↓

Sportivo Barracas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–019%
0–115%
0–26%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–16%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (19%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
81%19%1.5
49%51%2.5
23%77%3.5
9%91%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Claypole or draw
71%
Claypole or Sportivo Barracas
65%
Draw or Sportivo Barracas
64%

Winning margin

Claypole wins by 2+
13%
Sportivo Barracas wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Claypole 1+ goals
59%
Claypole 2+ goals
22%
Claypole 3+ goals
6%
Sportivo Barracas 1+ goals
53%
Sportivo Barracas 2+ goals
18%
Sportivo Barracas 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Claypole (draw refunded)
56%
Sportivo Barracas (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
18%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Claypole at home — creates 0.85, concedes 0.85 · 13 matches

Sportivo Barracas away — creates 0.67, concedes 0.92 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Claypole attack 0.85 + Sportivo Barracas defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.89

Sportivo Barracas attack 0.67 + Claypole defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Claypole scores more
36%
level
35%
Sportivo Barracas scores more
29%

Claypole at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Claypole will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Claypole vs Sportivo Barracas — Match Preview

Claypole face Sportivo Barracas on April 18, 2020 in this League #133 fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Claypole host Sportivo Barracas at Estadio Rodolfo Vicente Capocasa (Claypole, Provincia de Buenos Aires).

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.