Sporting Gijon 2–1 Racing Santander: Result & Stats

Sporting Gijon

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Racing Santander

P. Vazquez 64'

J. Dubasin 14'

Jeremy Arevalo 75'

10/12/2025

Segunda División · Round 9El Molinón

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Sporting Gijon52%

×Draw25%

Racing Santander23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sporting GijonExpected goals in this matchRacing Santander

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.64

1.00

Sporting Gijon

1.64

Racing Santander

1.00

Sporting Gijon creates 64% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 6 away

1.44

creates per match

0.95

1.06

allows per match

1.84

creates per match

Sporting Gijon

1.44

Racing Santander

0.95

allows per match

Sporting Gijon

1.06

Racing Santander

1.84

+0.06on par

finishing

+0.88scores more than expected

finishing

Sporting Gijon+0.06on par

Racing Santander+0.88scores more

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sporting Gijon ↓

Racing Santander →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Sporting Gijon or draw

77%

Sporting Gijon or Racing Santander

75%

Draw or Racing Santander

48%

Winning margin

Sporting Gijon wins by 2+

28%

Racing Santander wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Sporting Gijon 1+ goals

81%

Sporting Gijon 2+ goals

49%

Sporting Gijon 3+ goals

23%

Racing Santander 1+ goals

63%

Racing Santander 2+ goals

26%

Racing Santander 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Sporting Gijon (draw refunded)

69%

Racing Santander (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sporting Gijon at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.06 · 8 matches

Racing Santander away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.84 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sporting Gijon attack 1.44 + Racing Santander defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 1.64

Racing Santander attack 0.95 + Sporting Gijon defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Sporting Gijon scores more

52%

level

25%

Racing Santander scores more

23%

Sporting Gijon at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Sporting Gijon will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

17

J. Dubasin

Sporting Gijon · M

8.2

Match Events

-5'

14'

27'

36'

46'

G. Puerta← A. Aldasoro

60'

Jeremy Arevalo← A. Villalibre

61'

M. Garcia← J. Salinas

64'

P. Vazquez

75'

Jeremy Arevalo↳ A. Martin

76'

J. Arana← M. Gueye

77'

Gustavo Puerta

78'

P. Garcia← G. Campos

79'

N. Martin← C. Gelabert Pina

81'

Clément Michelin

85'

Y. Cabanzon← C. Michelin

88'

90+6'

90+9'

90+10'

90+10'

90+4'

M. Loum← G. Rosas

90+8'

J. Caicedo← J. Otero

90+3'

K. Vazquez← J. Dubasin

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SportingRacing

Overview

41%Possession59%

9Total Shots13

4Corners6

9Fouls13

Shots

9Total Shots13

4On Target3

3Off Target8

2Blocked2

8Inside Box7

1Outside Box6

Passing

41%Possession59%

343Total Passes495

258Accurate Passes415

75%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

Discipline

9Fouls13

1Yellow Cards6

1Red Cards2

4Offsides1

Segunda División: Sporting Gijon 2–1 Racing Santander

Sporting Gijon beat Racing Santander 2-1 in Segunda División on October 12, 2025.

Goals: J. Dubasin (14'), P. Vazquez (64'), Jeremy Arevalo (75').

Racing Santander controlled possession (59%) and registered 13 shots to 9.

The match was played at El Molinón in Gijon.

Sporting Gijon vs Racing Santander — Segunda División 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Segunda División: Sporting Gijon 2–1 Racing Santander