Sporting Gijon 2–3 Racing Santander: Result & Stats

Sporting Gijon

FT

2 – 3

HT: 1 – 0

Racing Santander

Gaspar Campos 76'

U. Đurđević 24'

1 Peque Fernández 90+11' (pen)

Juan Carlos Arana 88', 63'

3/30/2024

Segunda División · Round 33Estadio Municipal El Molinón

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Sporting Gijon52%

×Draw25%

Racing Santander23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sporting GijonExpected goals in this matchRacing Santander

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.64

1.00

Sporting Gijon

1.64

Racing Santander

1.00

Sporting Gijon creates 64% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 6 away

1.44

creates per match

0.95

1.06

allows per match

1.84

creates per match

Sporting Gijon

1.44

Racing Santander

0.95

allows per match

Sporting Gijon

1.06

Racing Santander

1.84

+0.06on par

finishing

+0.88scores more than expected

finishing

Sporting Gijon+0.06on par

Racing Santander+0.88scores more

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sporting Gijon ↓

Racing Santander →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Sporting Gijon or draw

77%

Sporting Gijon or Racing Santander

75%

Draw or Racing Santander

48%

Winning margin

Sporting Gijon wins by 2+

28%

Racing Santander wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Sporting Gijon 1+ goals

81%

Sporting Gijon 2+ goals

49%

Sporting Gijon 3+ goals

23%

Racing Santander 1+ goals

63%

Racing Santander 2+ goals

26%

Racing Santander 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Sporting Gijon (draw refunded)

69%

Racing Santander (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sporting Gijon at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.06 · 8 matches

Racing Santander away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.84 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sporting Gijon attack 1.44 + Racing Santander defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 1.64

Racing Santander attack 0.95 + Sporting Gijon defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Sporting Gijon scores more

52%

level

25%

Racing Santander scores more

23%

Sporting Gijon at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Sporting Gijon will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

Juan Carlos Arana

Racing Santander · F

7.9

Match Events

13'

24'

26'

29'

32'

40'

45'

46'

Iván Morante← Íñigo Sainz-Maza

46'

Mario García← Saúl García

59'

Christian Rivera← Nacho Martín

63'

Juan Carlos Arana↳ Iván Morante

64'

Cristian Rivera

67'

Carlos Izquierdoz

69'

Dani Queipo← H. Hassan

69'

Mario González← U. Đurđević

71'

Dani Queipo

76'

Gaspar Campos

79'

Mario González

79'

Fran Villalba← Gaspar Campos

79'

J. Varane← Nacho Méndez

87'

Ekain Zenitagoia← Aritz Aldasoro

87'

R. Baturina← Jordi Mboula

88'

Juan Carlos Arana↳ Iván Morante

89'

Juan Carlos Arana

90+6'

Carlos Izquierdoz

90+6'

Carlos IzquierdozCard upgrade

90+9'

Clément GrenierPenalty confirmed

90'

C. Grenier← Juan Carlos Arana

90+11'

1 Peque FernándezPenalty

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SportingRacing

Overview

52%Possession48%

14Total Shots9

0Corners4

17Fouls18

Shots

14Total Shots9

5On Target3

8Off Target4

1Blocked2

7Inside Box6

7Outside Box3

Passing

52%Possession48%

441Total Passes396

348Accurate Passes311

79%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

0Saves2

Discipline

17Fouls18

6Yellow Cards5

1Red Cards0

3Offsides0