Racing Santander 3–1 Sporting Gijon: Result & Stats

Racing Santander

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Sporting Gijon

A. Villalibre 90', 90'

G. Guliashvili 10'

J. Dubasin 68' (pen)

4/1/2026

Segunda División · Round 33Estadio El Sardinero

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 106+ matches

Racing Santander46%

×Draw27%

Sporting Gijon27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Racing SantanderExpected goals in this matchSporting Gijon

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

1.00

Racing Santander

1.40

Sporting Gijon

1.00

Racing Santander creates 40% more chances

Season form · 106 home / 170 away

1.67

creates per match

0.89

1.11

allows per match

1.14

creates per match

Racing Santander

1.67

Sporting Gijon

0.89

allows per match

Racing Santander

1.11

Sporting Gijon

1.14

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Racing Santander+0.00on par

Sporting Gijon+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Racing Santander ↓

Sporting Gijon →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Racing Santander or draw

73%

Racing Santander or Sporting Gijon

73%

Draw or Sporting Gijon

54%

Winning margin

Racing Santander wins by 2+

22%

Sporting Gijon wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Racing Santander 1+ goals

75%

Racing Santander 2+ goals

41%

Racing Santander 3+ goals

17%

Sporting Gijon 1+ goals

63%

Sporting Gijon 2+ goals

26%

Sporting Gijon 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Racing Santander (draw refunded)

63%

Sporting Gijon (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Racing Santander at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.11 · 106 matches

Sporting Gijon away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.14 · 170 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Racing Santander attack 1.67 + Sporting Gijon defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.40

Sporting Gijon attack 0.89 + Racing Santander defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Racing Santander scores more

46%

level

27%

Sporting Gijon scores more

27%

Racing Santander at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Racing Santander will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

12

A. Villalibre

Racing Santander · F

8.5

Match Events

10'

10'

16'

35'

41'

57'

D. Rodriguez← M. Gueye

57'

P. Canales← S. Camara

60'

P. Ramon← F. Gonzalez

68'

J. DubasinPenalty

75'

J. Bernal← J. Smith

76'

D. Queipo← G. Campos

80'

A. Villalibre← G. Guliashvili

80'

J. Salinas← M. Garcia

85'

M. Conde← J. Dubasin

90+4'

Gustavo Puerta

90+7'

Asier VillalibreGoal confirmed

90'

Álex Corredera

90'

A. Villalibre↳ J. Castro

90'

A. Villalibre↳ A. Martin

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

RacingSporting

Overview

44%Possession56%

10Total Shots15

3Corners7

16Fouls12

Shots

10Total Shots15

7On Target4

2Off Target7

1Blocked4

7Inside Box13

3Outside Box2

Passing

44%Possession56%

365Total Passes455

289Accurate Passes357

79%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

3Saves3

Discipline

16Fouls12

3Yellow Cards2

1Offsides6