Racing Santander 1–0 Sporting Gijon: Result & Stats

Racing Santander

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Sporting Gijon

C. Michelin 40'

9/14/2024

Segunda División · Round 5Campos de Sport de El Sardinero

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 106+ matches

Racing Santander46%

×Draw27%

Sporting Gijon27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Racing SantanderExpected goals in this matchSporting Gijon

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

1.00

Racing Santander

1.40

Sporting Gijon

1.00

Racing Santander creates 40% more chances

Season form · 106 home / 170 away

1.67

creates per match

0.89

1.11

allows per match

1.14

creates per match

Racing Santander

1.67

Sporting Gijon

0.89

allows per match

Racing Santander

1.11

Sporting Gijon

1.14

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Racing Santander+0.00on par

Sporting Gijon+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Racing Santander ↓

Sporting Gijon →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Racing Santander or draw

73%

Racing Santander or Sporting Gijon

73%

Draw or Sporting Gijon

54%

Winning margin

Racing Santander wins by 2+

22%

Sporting Gijon wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Racing Santander 1+ goals

75%

Racing Santander 2+ goals

41%

Racing Santander 3+ goals

17%

Sporting Gijon 1+ goals

63%

Sporting Gijon 2+ goals

26%

Sporting Gijon 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Racing Santander (draw refunded)

63%

Sporting Gijon (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Racing Santander at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.11 · 106 matches

Sporting Gijon away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.14 · 170 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Racing Santander attack 1.67 + Sporting Gijon defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.40

Sporting Gijon attack 0.89 + Racing Santander defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Racing Santander scores more

46%

level

27%

Sporting Gijon scores more

27%

Racing Santander at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Racing Santander will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

17

C. Michelin

Racing Santander · D

7.9

Match Events

-5'

José Ángel

40'

C. Michelin↳ Iñigo Vicente

44'

Pablo García← Cote

62'

Jon Karrikaburu← Juan Carlos Arana

62'

L. Junior← Pablo Rodríguez

64'

J. Caicedo← Nacho Martín

64'

César Gelabert← Gaspar Campos

64'

Víctor Campuzano← J. Otero

66'

Iñigo Vicente

66'

Guille Rosas

68'

Pablo García

68'

Kevin Vázquez← Guille Rosas

73'

Jordy Caicedo

77'

Suleiman Camara← Andrés Martín

84'

Jokin Ezkieta

86'

Íñigo Sainz-Maza← Iñigo Vicente

86'

Javi Castro← C. Michelin

90+7'

Víctor Campuzano

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

RacingSporting

Overview

43%Possession57%

13Total Shots9

5Corners4

6Fouls23

Shots

13Total Shots9

4On Target0

3Off Target5

6Blocked4

10Inside Box7

3Outside Box2

Passing

43%Possession57%

348Total Passes480

236Accurate Passes358

68%Pass Accuracy75%

Goalkeeping

0Saves3

Discipline

6Fouls23

2Yellow Cards5

4Offsides3

Segunda División: Racing Santander 1–0 Sporting Gijon

Racing Santander beat Sporting Gijon 1-0 in Segunda División on September 14, 2024.

Goals: C. Michelin (40').

Sporting Gijon controlled possession (57%) and registered 9 shots to 13.

The match was played at Campos de Sport de El Sardinero in Santander.

Racing Santander vs Sporting Gijon — Segunda División 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Segunda División: Racing Santander 1–0 Sporting Gijon