Spezia 0–2 Frosinone: Result & Stats | Serie B

Spezia

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Frosinone

F. Ghedjemis 55'

G. Kvernadze 37'

2/15/2026

Serie B · Round 25Stadio Alberto Picco

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Spezia42%

×Draw24%

Frosinone34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SpeziaExpected goals in this matchFrosinone

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.63

1.46

Spezia

1.63

Frosinone

1.46

Spezia creates 12% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 9 away

1.51

creates per match

1.75

1.17

allows per match

1.74

creates per match

Spezia

1.51

Frosinone

1.75

allows per match

Spezia

1.17

Frosinone

1.74

+0.27scores more than expected

finishing

+0.25scores more than expected

finishing

Spezia+0.27scores more

Frosinone+0.25scores more

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spezia ↓

Frosinone →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Spezia or draw

66%

Spezia or Frosinone

76%

Draw or Frosinone

58%

Winning margin

Spezia wins by 2+

21%

Frosinone wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Spezia 1+ goals

80%

Spezia 2+ goals

48%

Spezia 3+ goals

22%

Frosinone 1+ goals

77%

Frosinone 2+ goals

43%

Frosinone 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Spezia (draw refunded)

55%

Frosinone (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spezia at home — creates 1.51, concedes 1.17 · 9 matches

Frosinone away — creates 1.75, concedes 1.74 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spezia attack 1.51 + Frosinone defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.63

Frosinone attack 1.75 + Spezia defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Spezia scores more

42%

level

24%

Frosinone scores more

34%

Spezia at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Spezia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

F. Ghedjemis

Frosinone · F

8.3

Match Events

9'

Vanja VlahovićPenalty cancelled

32'

Giacomo Calò

36'

Alessandro Romano

37'

G. Kvernadze↳ F. Ghedjemis

45+3'

Marco Ruggero

46'

A. Mateju← P. Hristov

55'

F. Ghedjemis↳ G. Kvernadze

59'

G. Artistico← V. Vlahovic

59'

J. Gelli← G. Cittadini

62'

Antonio RaimondoGoal cancelled

63'

L. Vignali← A. Bellemo

63'

C. Comotto← L. Sernicola

66'

Christian ComottoPenalty cancelled

73'

B. L. Kone← G. Calo

73'

M. Zilli← A. Raimondo

77'

Emanuele Adamo

86'

Christian Comotto

87'

Ben Lhassine Kone

90'

N. Corrado← G. Bracaglia

90+1'

A. Fiori← G. Kvernadze

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SpeziaFrosinone

Overview

50%Possession50%

6Total Shots15

0.46Expected Goals (xG)2.30

2Corners11

15Fouls16

Shots

6Total Shots15

2On Target6

2Off Target4

2Blocked5

4Inside Box9

2Outside Box6

Passing

50%Possession50%

318Total Passes308

225Accurate Passes209

71%Pass Accuracy68%

Goalkeeping

4Saves2

0.84Goals Prevented0.84

Discipline

15Fouls16

4Yellow Cards2

1Offsides1