Spezia 0–1 Frosinone: Result & Stats | Serie B

Spezia

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Frosinone

8/20/2020

Serie B · Promotion Play-offs - FinalsStadio Alberto Picco

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Spezia41%

×Draw24%

Frosinone34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SpeziaExpected goals in this matchFrosinone

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.59

1.43

Spezia

1.59

Frosinone

1.43

Spezia creates 11% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 10 away

1.51

creates per match

1.69

1.17

allows per match

1.68

creates per match

Spezia

1.51

Frosinone

1.69

allows per match

Spezia

1.17

Frosinone

1.68

+0.27scores more than expected

finishing

+0.21scores more than expected

finishing

Spezia+0.27scores more

Frosinone+0.21scores more

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spezia ↓

Frosinone →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Spezia or draw

66%

Spezia or Frosinone

76%

Draw or Frosinone

59%

Winning margin

Spezia wins by 2+

21%

Frosinone wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Spezia 1+ goals

80%

Spezia 2+ goals

47%

Spezia 3+ goals

21%

Frosinone 1+ goals

76%

Frosinone 2+ goals

42%

Frosinone 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Spezia (draw refunded)

55%

Frosinone (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spezia at home — creates 1.51, concedes 1.17 · 9 matches

Frosinone away — creates 1.69, concedes 1.68 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spezia attack 1.51 + Frosinone defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.59

Frosinone attack 1.69 + Spezia defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Spezia scores more

41%

level

24%

Frosinone scores more

34%

Spezia at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Spezia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff