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Frosinone vs Spezia — Serie B 2018

Frosinone
Frosinone
FT
2 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Spezia
Spezia
E. Bohinen 39', 9'
F. Esposito 75'
F. Bandinelli 15'
4/25/2025Serie BSerie B · Round 35Stadio Benito Stirpe

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 12+ matches

Frosinone49%
×Draw22%
Spezia29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Frosinone
1.92
Spezia
1.45

Frosinone creates 32% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 12 away

creates per match

Frosinone
1.95
Spezia
1.71

allows per match

Frosinone
1.19
Spezia
1.90

finishing

Frosinone+0.48scores more
Spezia-0.54scores less

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Frosinone ↓

Spezia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Frosinone or draw
71%
Frosinone or Spezia
78%
Draw or Spezia
51%

Winning margin

Frosinone wins by 2+
27%
Spezia wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Frosinone 1+ goals
85%
Frosinone 2+ goals
57%
Frosinone 3+ goals
30%
Spezia 1+ goals
77%
Spezia 2+ goals
42%
Spezia 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Frosinone (draw refunded)
62%
Spezia (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Frosinone at home — creates 1.95, concedes 1.19 · 14 matches

Spezia away — creates 1.71, concedes 1.90 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Frosinone attack 1.95 + Spezia defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.92

Spezia attack 1.71 + Frosinone defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Frosinone scores more
49%
level
22%
Spezia scores more
29%

Frosinone at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Frosinone will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

32
E. BohinenFrosinoneFrosinone · M
8.2

Match Events

9'
E. Bohinen↳ F. Ghedjemis
15'
F. Bandinelli
35'
Emil Bohinen
39'
E. Bohinen
56'
Ilario Monterisi
59'
F. Distefano← F. Ghedjemis
59'
R. Kouda← G. Aurelio
60'
L. Vignali← S. Elia
66'
G. Cittadini← I. Monterisi
67'
M. Cichella← İ. Vural
67'
F. Tsadjout← G. Ambrosino
67'
D. Falcinelli← F. Bandinelli
75'
F. Esposito↳ R. Kouda
84'
A. Partipilo← G. Kvernadze
84'
F. Cassata← Á. Nagy

Possession

31%Frosinone

Shots

8Frosinone

Pass accuracy

45%Frosinone

Statistics

FrosinoneSpezia
Overview
31%Possession69%
8Total Shots21
2Corners6
14Fouls11
Shots
8Total Shots21
3On Target7
3Off Target10
2Blocked4
4Inside Box14
4Outside Box7
Passing
31%Possession69%
232Total Passes498
164Accurate Passes432
71%Pass Accuracy87%
Goalkeeping
5Saves1
Discipline
14Fouls11
2Yellow Cards0
0Offsides2

Serie B: Frosinone 2–2 Spezia

Frosinone and Spezia drew 2-2 in Serie B on April 25, 2025.

Goals: E. Bohinen (9', 39'), F. Bandinelli (15'), F. Esposito (75').

Spezia controlled possession (69%) and registered 21 shots to 8.

The match was played at Stadio Benito Stirpe in Frosinone.