Spezia 2–1 Frosinone: Result & Stats | Serie B

Spezia

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Frosinone

G. Aurelio 90+2'

S. Esposito 75' (pen)

M. Çuni 38'

8/24/2024

Serie B · Round 2Stadio Alberto Picco

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Spezia42%

×Draw24%

Frosinone34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SpeziaExpected goals in this matchFrosinone

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.63

1.46

Spezia

1.63

Frosinone

1.46

Spezia creates 12% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 9 away

1.51

creates per match

1.75

1.17

allows per match

1.74

creates per match

Spezia

1.51

Frosinone

1.75

allows per match

Spezia

1.17

Frosinone

1.74

+0.27scores more than expected

finishing

+0.25scores more than expected

finishing

Spezia+0.27scores more

Frosinone+0.25scores more

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spezia ↓

Frosinone →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Spezia or draw

66%

Spezia or Frosinone

76%

Draw or Frosinone

58%

Winning margin

Spezia wins by 2+

21%

Frosinone wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Spezia 1+ goals

80%

Spezia 2+ goals

48%

Spezia 3+ goals

22%

Frosinone 1+ goals

77%

Frosinone 2+ goals

43%

Frosinone 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Spezia (draw refunded)

55%

Frosinone (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spezia at home — creates 1.51, concedes 1.17 · 9 matches

Frosinone away — creates 1.75, concedes 1.74 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spezia attack 1.51 + Frosinone defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.63

Frosinone attack 1.75 + Spezia defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Spezia scores more

42%

level

24%

Frosinone scores more

34%

Spezia at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Spezia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

31

G. Aurelio

Spezia · D

7.7

Match Events

30'

34'

38'

50'

57'

61'

P. Candelari← F. Bandinelli

61'

E. Soleri← D. Falcinelli

68'

F. Distefano← F. Ghedjemis

68'

L. Garritano← E. Darboe

73'

Michele Cerofolini

75'

S. EspositoPenalty

78'

E. Pecorino← M. Çuni

78'

G. Kvernadze← G. Ambrosino

82'

G. Aurelio← L. Vignali

82'

G. Di Serio← F. Esposito

87'

90+8'

90+8'

90+7'

90+2'

G. Bracaglia← A. Oyono

90+2'

G. Aurelio↳ E. Soleri

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SpeziaFrosinone

Overview

52%Possession48%

13Total Shots8

5Corners7

20Fouls21

Shots

13Total Shots8

6On Target3

3Off Target4

4Blocked1

10Inside Box3

3Outside Box5

Passing

52%Possession48%

343Total Passes323

261Accurate Passes234

76%Pass Accuracy72%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

Discipline

20Fouls21

2Yellow Cards6

1Offsides1

Match Recap: Spezia vs Frosinone

Spezia beat Frosinone 2-1 in Serie B on August 24, 2024.

Goals: M. Çuni (38'), S. Esposito (75' pen), G. Aurelio (90+2').

Spezia controlled possession (52%) and registered 13 shots to 8.

The match was played at Stadio Alberto Picco in La Spezia.

Spezia vs Frosinone — Serie B 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Spezia vs Frosinone