Spartak Moscow 3–0 Nizhny Novgorod: Result & Stats

Spartak Moscow

FT

3 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Nizhny Novgorod

G. Fernandes 64', 36'

M. Ugalde 10'

9/28/2025

Premier League · Round 10Lukoil Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 78+ matches

Spartak Moscow56%

×Draw24%

Nizhny Novgorod20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Spartak MoscowExpected goals in this matchNizhny Novgorod

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.70

0.91

Spartak Moscow

1.70

Nizhny Novgorod

0.91

Spartak Moscow creates 87% more chances

Season form · 119 home / 78 away

1.72

creates per match

0.78

1.03

allows per match

1.68

creates per match

Spartak Moscow

1.72

Nizhny Novgorod

0.78

allows per match

Spartak Moscow

1.03

Nizhny Novgorod

1.68

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Spartak Moscow+0.00on par

Nizhny Novgorod+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spartak Moscow ↓

Nizhny Novgorod →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Spartak Moscow or draw

80%

Spartak Moscow or Nizhny Novgorod

76%

Draw or Nizhny Novgorod

44%

Winning margin

Spartak Moscow wins by 2+

31%

Nizhny Novgorod wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Spartak Moscow 1+ goals

82%

Spartak Moscow 2+ goals

51%

Spartak Moscow 3+ goals

24%

Nizhny Novgorod 1+ goals

60%

Nizhny Novgorod 2+ goals

23%

Nizhny Novgorod 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Spartak Moscow (draw refunded)

74%

Nizhny Novgorod (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spartak Moscow at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.03 · 119 matches

Nizhny Novgorod away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.68 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spartak Moscow attack 1.72 + Nizhny Novgorod defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.70

Nizhny Novgorod attack 0.78 + Spartak Moscow defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Spartak Moscow scores more

56%

level

24%

Nizhny Novgorod scores more

20%

Spartak Moscow at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Spartak Moscow will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

83

G. Fernandes

Spartak Moscow · M

9.7

Match Events

10'

M. Ugalde↳ Marquinhos

36'

G. Fernandes↳ I. Dmitriev

39'

Manfred Ugalde

39'

Daniil Lesovoy

59'

V. Pigas← D. Lesovoy

59'

N. Ermakov← E. Smelov

64'

G. Fernandes↳ I. Dmitriev

73'

V. Tsarukyan← M. Shnaptsev

73'

V. Grulev← J. Boselli

76'

Igor Dmitriev

82'

C. Martins← G. Fernandes

82'

T. Bongonda← Marquinhos

82'

L. Garcia← M. Ugalde

82'

R. Cephas← O. Olusegun

88'

S. Babic← I. Dmitriev

88'

D. Zorin← E. Barco

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SpartakNizhny

Overview

68%Possession32%

16Total Shots9

4Corners4

12Fouls14

Shots

16Total Shots9

6On Target3

4Off Target2

6Blocked4

12Inside Box5

4Outside Box4

Passing

68%Possession32%

673Total Passes307

578Accurate Passes220

86%Pass Accuracy72%

Goalkeeping

3Saves3

Discipline

12Fouls14

2Yellow Cards1

1Offsides1